The leagues top team will be on the road when the Houston Rockets (51-14) head to American Airlines Center to meet the Dallas Mavericks (21-45). Houston opened as a 13-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 214 points. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 11, 2018, and it can be seen on ATTSN Southwest.
Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks ATS Preview
In the Rockets last outing, they lost a close one to the Toronto Raptors, 108-105. With 40 points on 15-for-22 shooting, James Harden was the top scorer from either team. Toronto had an offensive rebounding percentage of 29.3 (above their season average of 22.7). Houston, on the other hand, had a better free throw rate (0.198 vs. 0.129).
The Mavericks hope to keep it rolling after blowing out the Memphis Grizzlies in their last contest, 114-80. Dallas rallied around Dwight Powell, who put up 15 points and 10 rebounds. Dallas dominated every stat category in the game. They had a ridiculous free throw rate of 0.390 (above their season average of 0.171) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.545 (above their season average of 0.516). Memphis was 0.155 and 0.399, respectively, for those same stats.
Second-chance opportunities might be scarce for Dallas in this matchup. The Mavericks rank 30th in offensive rebounding percentage (17.7 percent), while Houston ranks third in defensive rebounding percentage (80.6 percent). Additionally, the Rockets second-ranked offense (effective field goal percentage of 0.555) will battle against the Mavericks 22nd-ranked defense (effective field goal percentage allowed of 0.531).
Of Houston’s 65 games, 34 have finished under the projected point total, while 34 of Dallas 65 games have finished under the O/U total. The Rockets have the superior straight up (SU) record (51-14 vs. 21-45), but both teams are near the .500 mark against the spread (ATS).
Powell has really been playing well over the last five games for Dallas, averaging 11.2 points and 9.6 rebounds per game.
These two teams have met three times already this year, with the Rockets winning all three. Chris Paul had 25 points, nine assists and eight rebounds in the most recent matchup, in which the Rockets beat the Mavericks 104-97 but could not cover as 15-point favorites. The two teams combined for 201 points, which was 14 points below the projected point total of 215 points. The Rockets played a nearly flawless game. They had a solid free throw rate of 0.295 and a solid turnover percentage of 8.9. The Mavericks put up marks of 0.118 and 12.3, respectively, for those same stats.
Houston Rockets vs. Dallas Mavericks Odds Prediction
NBA Tip: SU Winner – Rockets, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Over
- The Rockets rank second in steals per game (8.8) while the Mavericks rank 23rd (7.2).
- Houston ranks 18th in blocks per game (4.6) while Dallas ranks 28th (3.8).
- Houston averages 42.1 three pointers per game, which ranks first in the league. Dallas ranks 15th in three pointers allowed per game (29.3).
- On the road, Houston is 22-12 ATS with 20 unders, 13 overs and 1 push.
- Dallas is 16-18 ATS at home with 17 unders, 16 overs and 1 push.
- Dallas is 14-11 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Houston is 23-2.
- When reaching 100 points, the Rockets are 49-11 and the Mavericks are 15-22.
- The Rockets average 11.4 fast break points per game, which ranks 15th in the NBA. The Mavericks rank 27th in fast break points allowed per game (14.2).
- Dallas ranks third in points allowed in the paint per game (41.5) while Houston ranks 28th (48.1).
- The Rockets rank second in rebounds allowed per game (41.0) while the Mavericks rank 27th (45.5).
- The Rockets rank 21st in second chance points per game (11.5) while the Mavericks rank last (10.2).
- Houston ranks sixth in points off turnovers per game (17.8) while Dallas ranks 29th (14.5).
- Dallas is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Houston is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
- The Mavericks have outscored opponents by an average of 3.8 points in their last five games. For the season, Dallas has lost by an average of 2.2 points.
- During their last five games, the Rockets have scored an average of 113.0 points per game (0.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 106.2 points per game (1.0 above their season average).