Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Houston Astros will square off against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. This AL matchup is going to be nationally broadcasted on Fox Sports One and the game gets underway 4:05 p.m. ET.

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Odds

Oddsmakers have offered equal -105 moneyline odds on both of these teams. Bettors can wager on the game’s total with odds posted at -115 for over 9 runs and -105 for under 9. The game’s runline odds stand at +140 for picking the Astros -1.5 runs and -160 for the Red Sox +1.5 runs.

The Astros are 88-53 SU and are 72-68 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 9.1 units for moneyline bettors and 2.3 units ATS. The Red Sox, on the other hand, are 97-45 SU and 85-56 ATS. The team has gained 33.6 units for moneyline bettors and 28.3 units ATS.

Red Sox games have had an over/under record of 66-69-6 in 2018. Houston has been a good under bet with a total record of 61-72-7.

The right-handed Charlie Morton is the projected starter for the visiting Astros. Morton is 13-3 with a 3.14 ERA and 185 strikeouts. He’s 0-1 with seven strikeouts and a 10.13 ERA against Boston this year.

The Red Sox are preparing to start lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (12-3, 3.34 ERA), who has 122 strikeouts and 33 walks to his credit, as well as a 1.20 WHIP. Rodriguez has yet to face the Astros this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (0-1, 27.00 ERA and two strikeouts across 1.2 innings).

Houston’s pitchers have allowed 3.3 runs per game and its starters own a 3.16 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 10.38 K/9. The bullpen has a solid ERA of just 2.93, along with a WHIP of 1.11.

Astros hitters have slashed .256/.332/.431 on their way to 5.0 runs scored per game this year, including 4.5 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 5.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (5-0 SU).

Houston’s hitters have been led by third baseman Alex Bregman and second baseman Jose Altuve. Bregman is slashing .300/.401/.560 with 29 home runs, 96 RBIs and 97 runs scored, while Altuve is hitting .317 with 10 homers, 52 RBIs, 72 runs and 15 stolen bases.

For the home team, Boston’s pitching staff has yielded 3.9 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starters have a 3.70 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.54 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 9.7 K/9.

Boston’s hitters are putting up 5.4 runs per contest, including 6.3 per game over its last 10 games and 5.0 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .243/.345/.324 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that span.

J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts have led the Red Sox hitters this year. Martinez is hitting .335/.407/.639 with 39 home runs, 117 RBIs and 103 runs scored, and Betts has put up a line of .339/.429/.627 with 29 homers, 71 RBIs, 112 runs and 27 steals.

The Astros have lost 9.8 units and are 25-27 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in 24 of those games, as opposed to 26 that’ve gone under against lefties. On the other hand, the Red Sox have netted 33.5 units and are 68-40 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 51 of those games, compared to 52 that’ve cashed the under.

Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Red Sox, ATS Winner – Red Sox, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The under has cashed in five of Houston’s last seven games.
  • Boston has posted 24.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 21.8 over its last five.
  • The Astros have hit 10 home runs in their last 10 games, including seven over their last five.