Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Houston Astros are squaring off against the Boston Red Sox in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series. The series gets officially underway at 8:09 p.m. ET and the game will be televised on TBS.

Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox Odds

Vegas has listed Boston (-115) as the favorite over Houston (+105). Bettors can gamble on the game’s total with odds listed at -120 for over 7.5 runs and even money (+100) for under 7.5. The game’s most recent runline odds sit at -200 for taking the Astros +1.5 runs and +170 for the Red Sox -1.5.

Including the regular season, the Astros have gone 106-59 SU this year and are 86-79 against the spread (ATS). The team hasn’t moved the needle much this year, gaining 0.5 units for moneyline bettors, despite having lost 1.6 units ATS. The Red Sox, on the other hand, are 111-55 SU and 96-70 ATS. The team has gained 34.4 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 23.2 units ATS.

Boston games have a 79-79-8 over/under record in 2018. The Astros have been a good under bet with a total record of 72-85-8.

Justin Verlander will get the start for the visiting Astros. The right-handed Verlander is 16-9 with a 2.52 ERA and 290 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with six strikeouts and a 3.00 ERA against Boston this year.

The Red Sox are sending lefty Chris Sale (12-4, 2.11 ERA) to the mound. Sale has 237 strikeouts and 34 walks to his name, as well as a 0.86 WHIP. Sale is 0-1 with six strikeouts and a 6.00 ERA in one start against Houston this year.

Fueled by a team slash line of .327/.421/.615, Houston has tallied 7.0 runs per game through three postseason outings. The Red Sox are hitting .279/.365/.429 and the team has managed 6.8 runs during this year’s playoffs.

The Red Sox bullpen has registered a postseason ERA of 3.71 and a WHIP of 1.29, while Astros relievers have fared significantly better with a 0.93 ERA and 0.72 WHIP.

Third baseman Alex Bregman and second baseman Jose Altuve continue to lead Houston’s hitters. Bregman is slashing .290/.401/.544 with 33 home runs, 107 RBIs and 110 runs scored, while Altuve is hitting .316 with 14 homers, 63 RBIs, 88 runs and 17 stolen bases.

The Red Sox hitters have been led by J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts. Martinez is slashing .331/.403/.628 with 44 home runs, 136 RBIs and 112 runs scored, while Betts has put up a line of .341/.434/.629 with 32 homers, 82 RBIs, 132 runs and 30 stolen bases.

The Astros have lost 7.1 units and are 29-31 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has hit in 27 of those games, compared to 30 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Red Sox have netted 32.2 units and are 76-51 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in 61 of those games, compared to 60 that went under the total.

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Free Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Red Sox, ATS Winner – Astros, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The over has cashed in just two of Houston’s last seven games.
  • The Astros have won six of their last seven games SU while the Red Sox have won four of their last five.
  • Boston has recorded 28.8 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 28.2 over its last five.
  • The Astros have hit 17 home runs in their last 10 games, including 11 over their last five.