Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets ATS Prediction

With a trip to the NBA Finals on the line, the Golden State Warriors (3-3) will travel to Toyota Center to square off against the Houston Rockets (3-3) in game seven of the Western Conference Finals. The Rockets opened as 6-point underdogs. The games Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 209 points and it will air on TNT at 9 p.m. ET on Monday, May 28, 2018.

Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets Betting Odds

In game six, Thompson led the Warriors to a 115-86 win. He was the games leading scorer with 35 points. The two teams combined to score 201 points, which was under the projected point total of 214.5, and Golden State covered as a 12-point favorite. The Warriors 11.2 turnover percentage was their biggest strength over the Rockets, who had a rate of 19.9.

This showdown pits one of the NBA’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses. Houston currently ranks second in offensive efficiency and Golden State ranks fifth in defensive efficiency. Furthermore, the Warriors, who rank 21st in offensive rebounding percentage (21.2 percent), will face off against the Rockets, who rank third in defensive rebounding percentage (80.0 percent).

Of the Warriors 98 games, 51 have finished under the O/U total. Golden State has a phenomenal 69-29 straight up (SU) record, but they are just 41-54-3 against the spread (ATS).

Games involving the Rockets tend to finish under the projected point total (57.1 percent). Further, Houston is 76-22 SU and 50-46-2 ATS.

The Rockets are 1-4 with four unders and one over in the playoffs. The Warriors, meanwhile, are 14-10 ATS with 14 unders, nine overs and one push,

Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets Betting Pick

NBA Prediction: SU Winner – Rockets, ATS Winner – Rockets, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Warriors rank 22nd in points in the paint per game (43.4) while the Rockets rank 28th (40.9).
  • Golden State ranks first in assists per game (28.7) while Houston ranks 28th (21.1).
  • The Rockets average 41.9 three pointers per game, which ranks first in the league. The Warriors rank 17th in three pointers allowed per game (29.7).
  • Golden State ranks first in fast break points per game (18.8) while Houston ranks 17th (11.2).
  • Golden State ranks first in blocks per game (7.1) while Houston ranks 13th (4.9).
  • The Rockets average 8.4 steals per game, which ranks fifth in the league. The Warriors rank 27th in steals allowed per game (8.5).
  • The Rockets rank 11th in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.4) while the Warriors rank 26th (18.0).
  • Houston ranks seventh in second chance points allowed per game (11.6) while Golden State ranks 25th (13.2).
  • In games where they hold opponents under 100 points, Houston is 38-3 and Golden State is 21-7.
  • When scoring over 100 points, the Warriors are 65-17 and the Rockets are 71-15.
  • Houston is 22-27-1 ATS at home, while Golden State is 21-26-1 ATS on the road.
  • The total has gone under in 25 of the Warriors 48 road games, while 26 of the Rockets 50 home games have gone under.

Betting Trends:

  • In their last five games, Golden State and Houston have both had 4 unders and 1 over.
  • The Rockets are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Warriors are 2-3.
  • The Rockets have been outscored by an average of 8.2 points in their last five games. On the season, Houston has defeated opponents by an average of 7.5 points.
  • During their last five games, the Warriors have scored an average of 106.4 points per game (6.4 below their season average) and allowed an average of 98.2 points per game (8.2 below their season average).