The league’s top scoring team will be a 5.5-point favorite on the road at American Airlines Center, when the Golden State Warriors (28-14) meet the Dallas Mavericks (20-22). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 229.5 points and it will air on NBC Sports – Bay Area at 7 p.m. ET on Sunday, January 13, 2019.
Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks ATS Odds
Both teams covered in their last game. The Mavericks (4.5-point underdogs) defeated the Minnesota Timberwolves 119-115, while the Warriors (15.5-point favorite) beat the Chicago Bulls 146-109. Both games went over their projected point totals. The Dallas game finished 10 points over the projected point total of 224, while the Golden State game went 34 points over the projected point total of 221.
Golden State dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a superb offensive rebounding percentage of 31.4 (above their season average of 23.0) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.674 (above their season average of 0.554). Chicago was 11.6 and 0.506, respectively, for those same stats. Meanwhile, Dallas dominated nearly every stat category in their game. They had a phenomenally low turnover percentage of 6.1 (better than their season average of 13.8) and a free throw rate of 0.186 (matching their season average). For those same stats, Minnesota was 10.8 and 0.108, respectively. Dallas was led by Luka Doncic, who recorded 29 points, 12 assists and eight rebounds. Stephen Curry, meanwhile played a pivotal role for Golden State with 28 points, eight assists and five rebounds.
The Warriors evened the season series at one with a 120-116 win in their most recent matchup. Kevin Durant recorded a double-double with 29 points and 12 rebounds. The Warriors’ 30.0 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest strength over the Mavericks, who had a rate of 22.0. Golden State was unable to cover as an 11-point favorite and the two teams combined for 236 points, which was over the projected point total of 227.
Of the Warriors’ 42 games, 22 have finished over the total. Golden State has a respectable 28-14 straight up (SU) record, but they are just 18-24 against the spread (ATS).
Vegas is exceedingly accurate when predicting totals of Mavericks games, with an even split between overs and unders. Further, Dallas is 20-22 SU and 25-17 ATS.
The Warriors’ Klay Thompson has been playing at a high level over his last five games, averaging 27 points,1.6 steals per game. Meanwhile, Doncic has averaged 22 points,8.2 rebounds,3.8 assists,1.2 steals during that same time frame for the Mavericks.
The aggressive Dallas offense might be living from the charity stripe in this showdown. The Mavericks currently rank third in the NBA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.238, while Golden State ranks 19th in FTA rate allowed (0.206).
Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks Free Pick
NBA Prediction: SU Winner – Warriors, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Over
- The Mavericks average 16.0 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 19th in the league. The Warriors rank 24th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.0).
- Golden State ranks fourth in fast break points per game (18.3) while Dallas ranks last in fast break points allowed per game (17.0).
- The Warriors rank first in assists per game (28.5) while the Mavericks rank 23rd (22.6).
- Golden State ranks 17th in steals allowed per game (7.9) while Dallas ranks 27th (8.8).
- Dallas ranks 21st in points in the paint per game (46.0) while Golden State ranks 27th (41.1).
- The Mavericks average 34.4 three pointers per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. The Warriors rank 27th in three pointers allowed per game (33.5).
- The Mavericks average 13.4 second chance points per game, which ranks 12th in the NBA. The Warriors rank 19th in second chance points allowed per game (13.5).
- Golden State ranks fourth in rebounds allowed per game (43.0) while Dallas ranks eighth (43.6).
- Golden State ranks first in blocks per game (6.4) while Dallas ranks 23rd (4.5).
- Golden State is 5-0 when they allow under 100 points, while Dallas is 6-2.
- The Warriors are 28-9 when they score over 100 points, while the Mavericks are 20-18.
- Dallas is 14-6 ATS at home, while Golden State is 8-11 ATS on the road.
- The total has gone over in 12 of the Warriors’ 19 road games, while 11 of the Mavericks’ 20 home games have gone under.
- The Warriors are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Mavericks are 2-3.
- In their last five games, Golden State has 4 overs and 1 under, while Dallas has 4 unders and 1 over.
- During their last five games, the Warriors have scored an average of 132.2 points per game (14.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 114.2 points per game (2.5 above their season average).
- The Mavericks have been outscored by an average of 4.6 points in their last five games. On the season, Dallas has defeated opponents by an average of 0.5 points.