Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans Free Prediction

Jose VasquezArticles, Basketball, NBA

The Golden State Warriors (2-1) will travel to Smoothie King Center to go head-to-head against the New Orleans Pelicans (1-2) in game four of the Western Conference Semifinals. The Warriors opened as 5.5-point favorites. The games Over/Under (O/U) opened at 231.5 points and it can be seen on ABC at 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, May 6, 2018.

Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans ATS Odds

In game three, Davis led the Pelicans to a 119-100 win. He registered a double-double with 33 points and 18 rebounds. New Orleans covered as a 4.5-point underdog and the two teams combined to put up 219 points, which was under the projected point total of 233. New Orleans 0.573 effective field goal percentage was its biggest advantage over Golden State, who had a mark of 0.429.

Looking at effective field goal percentage, this appears to be a matchup of two heavyweights. The upper-echelon New Orleans offense ranks fourth in the league in that metric at 0.542, while the stingy Golden State defense is ranked third in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.503).

Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Warriors games, with 45 overs compared to 44 unders. Golden State has a superb 64-26 straight up (SU) record, but they have a difficult time covering the spread (37-50-3 against the spread (ATS)).

Of the Pelicans 89 games, 52 have finished over the O/U total. Additionally, New Orleans is 53-36 SU and 51-37-1 ATS.

The Warriors Draymond Green has been playing at a high level over his last five games, averaging 14.4 points, 13.4 rebounds, 9.2 assists, 1.6 blocks and 1.4 steals per game. Meanwhile, Rajon Rondo has averaged 14.0 points, 11.8 assists, 7.4 rebounds and 1.6 steals during that same time frame for the Pelicans.

Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans Free Pick

Prediction: SU Winner – Pelicans, ATS Winner – Pelicans, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Pelicans rank 18th in second chance points per game (12.0) while the Warriors rank 29th (10.3).
  • Golden State ranks first in fast break points per game (19.1) while New Orleans ranks 28th in fast break points allowed per game (14.5).
  • The Warriors average 29.2 assists per game, which ranks first in the league. The Pelicans rank 21st in assists allowed per game (23.8).
  • Golden State averages 17.3 points off turnovers per game, which ranks fifth in the NBA. New Orleans ranks 23rd in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.4).
  • Golden State ranks 14th in three pointers allowed per game (29.2) while New Orleans ranks 26th (30.7).
  • The Pelicans rank eighth in steals per game (8.0) while the Warriors rank last in steals allowed per game (8.7).
  • The Warriors rank seventh in rebounds allowed per game (42.4) while the Pelicans rank 25th (45.6).
  • Golden State allows the fewest blocks per game (3.6) while New Orleans ranks fourth (4.3).
  • New Orleans ranks first in points in the paint per game (52.6) while Golden State ranks 23rd in points allowed in the paint per game (47.2).
  • When holding opponents under 100 points, Golden State is 18-5 and New Orleans is 13-2.
  • The Warriors are 60-16 when they score more than 100 points, while the Pelicans are 49-24.
  • New Orleans is 22-21-1 ATS at home, while Golden State is 19-24-1 ATS on the road.
  • The total has gone over in 22 of the Warriors 44 road games, while 30 of the Pelicans 44 home games have gone over.

Betting Trends:

  • The Pelicans are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Warriors are 1-4.
  • In their last five games, New Orleans has 4 overs and 1 under, while Golden State has 3 unders and 2 overs.
  • The Pelicans average margin of victory in their last five games has been 3.4, up from 1.5 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Warriors have scored an average of 106.6 points per game (6.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 106.0 points per game (1.0 below their season average).