Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets Betting Prediction

Jose VasquezArticles, Basketball, NBA

The Golden State Warriors will travel to Toyota Center to go head-to-head with the Houston Rockets to open the Western Conference Finals. The Warriors opened as 1.5-point underdogs. The games Over/Under (O/U) opened at 224 points and it will air on TNT at 9 p.m. ET on Monday, May 14, 2018.

Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets ATS Odds

Both teams defeated their last opponent. The Rockets defeated the Utah Jazz 112-102, while the Warriors beat the New Orleans Pelicans 113-104.

The Warriors held the Pelicans to an offensive rebounding percentage of 8.9 (below their season average of 19.9) and had a turnover percentage of 10.2 (better than their season average of 13.6). The Rockets, meanwhile, had 10 steals and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.590 (above their season average of 0.547). Houston’s Chris Paul had a solid performance, putting up 41 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds. Golden State rallied around Draymond Green, who had 19 points, 14 rebounds and nine assists.

This matchup figures to be a high-scoring affair as a pair of the leagues top offenses face off. Houston currently ranks first with 112.9 points per 100 possessions and Golden State is second (112.4). Also, the Warriors rank 21st in offensive rebounding percentage (21.2 percent), while the Rockets rank third in defensive rebounding percentage (80.1 percent).

Warriors games have no tendency in regards to the total, as there has been an even split between games finishing over and under. Golden State has a superb 66-26 straight up (SU) record, but they are just 38-51-3 against the spread (ATS).

Vegas is known to set the total high when the Rockets are involved, as 55.4 percent of their games have ended under the total. Moreover, Houston owns records of 73-19 SU and 47-43-2 ATS.

In the First-Round Series, the Warriors were 14-10 ATS with 14 unders, nine overs and one push while the Rockets were 1-4 with four unders and one over,

The Warriors Draymond Green has been playing at a high level over his last five games, averaging 14.4 points, 12.8 rebounds, 9.6 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.2 blocks per game. Meanwhile, Chris Paul has averaged 18.8 points, 6.6 rebounds, 6.0 assists and 2.0 steals during that same time frame for the Rockets.

Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets Pick

NBA Prediction: SU Winner – Rockets, ATS Winner – Rockets, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Warriors rank 22nd in points in the paint per game (43.4) while the Rockets rank 28th (41.0).
  • Golden State ranks first in assists per game (29.3) while Houston ranks 27th (21.4).
  • The Rockets rank seventh in second chance points allowed per game (11.6) while the Warriors rank 27th (13.5).
  • Golden State ranks first in fast break points per game (19.1) while Houston ranks 17th (11.3).
  • Golden State ranks first in blocks per game (7.2) while Houston ranks 11th (5.0).
  • The Rockets average 8.5 steals per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. The Warriors rank 28th in steals allowed per game (8.7).
  • The Rockets rank first in three pointers attempted per game (42.1) while the Warriors rank 16th (29.0).
  • Houston ranks seventh in points off turnovers per game (17.1) while Golden State ranks 28th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.3).
  • When allowing below 100 points, Golden State is 19-5 and Houston is 36-3.
  • The Warriors are 62-16 when they reach 100 points, while the Rockets are 70-14.
  • Houston is 20-26-1 ATS at home, while Golden State is 20-24-1 ATS on the road.
  • The total has gone under in 24 of the Rockets 47 home games, while 23 of the Warriors 45 road games have gone under.

Betting Trends:

  • The Rockets are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Warriors are 2-3.
  • In their last five games, Houston has 2 overs, 2 unders and 1 push, while Golden State has 3 unders and 2 overs.
  • The Rockets average margin of victory in their last five games has been 10.0, up from 8.6 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Warriors have scored an average of 115.0 points per game (1.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 106.4 points per game (0.4 below their season average).