The Cal Poly Mustangs (4-4) will try to put an end to the five-game winning streak of Fresno State when they welcome the Bulldogs (7-2) to Robert A. Mott Gym. Fresno State is a 7.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 141.5 points. Tip-off is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET on Saturday, December 9, 2017.
Fresno State Bulldogs at Cal Poly Mustangs Betting Preview
In the Bulldogs last matchup, they were victorious over the Bakersfield Roadrunners, 70-55. With 10 points and 13 rebounds, Bryson Williams had a solid game for Fresno State. Fresno State played a nearly perfect game. They had a phenomenal free throw rate of 0.479 (above their season average of 0.270) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 33.3 (matching their season average). For those same stats, Bakersfield recorded marks of 0.288 and 20.5, respectively.
The Mustangs will look to maintain momentum after defeating the Pepperdine Waves in their last matchup, 91-81. Cal Poly received a boost from Donovan Fields, who had 17 points and 11 assists. Cal Poly dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 20.7 (below their season average of 29.1) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.623 (above their season average of 0.515). Pepperdine put up marks of 16.7 and 0.545, respectively, for those same stats.
Half-court execution will be critical when a pair of the NCAA’s slowest-paced teams square off. Cal Poly ranks 310th in possessions per game (66.7) and Fresno State is 265th (70.4) dating back to the 2016-17 season. Additionally, the Bulldogs rank ninth in offensive efficiency (107.0), while the Mustangs rank 272nd in defensive efficiency (107.7).
Both of these teams have typically gone over the O/U total. Games featuring Fresno State have finished over 85.7 percent of the time, while 57.1 percent of Cal Poly games have finished over. The Bulldogs have the superior straight up (SU) record (7-2 vs. 4-4), but the Mustangs hold the substantial advantage against the spread (ATS) (5-2 vs. 4-3).
The Bulldogs won the only game against the Mustangs last season, 73-59. The Bulldogs offensive rebounding percentage was their largest advantage over the Mustangs. Fresno State had a rate of 26.1, while Cal Poly posted a mark of 16.7.
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Cal Poly Mustangs Betting Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Fresno State, ATS Winner – Cal Poly, O/U – Under
Betting Notes (2016-Present):
- The Bulldogs rank 178th in assists per game (12.8) while the Mustangs rank 283rd (11.2).
- Cal Poly ranks 55th in three pointers attempted per game (24.6) while Fresno State ranks 274th (18.0).
- The Bulldogs rank 10th in steals per game (8.5) while the Mustangs rank 227th (5.3).
- Fresno State ranks third in rebounds allowed per game (33.4) while Cal Poly ranks 206th (36.3).