Fresno State Bulldogs at Nevada Wolf Pack: NCAA Football Free Betting Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

The Fresno State Bulldogs (-12.5) are set to take on the Nevada Wolf Pack at Clarence Mackay Stadium. Kickoff for this crucial MWC matchup is scheduled for 10:30 p.m. ET and ESPNU has the TV rights.

Betting Preview: Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Fresno State Bulldogs

In this Saturday Mountain West game, Fresno State is labeled as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 12.5 points. The Bulldogs are also receiving -525 moneyline odds while the Wolf Pack are +360. If one program can get out in front early it’ll result in a nice betting scenario in-game. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 60 points.

Sharp bettors are siding with both the Bulldogs and the under. The line initially opened at 11.5 and the game’s over/under was set originally at 62.

The Bulldogs are 3-1 against the spread (ATS) and have recorded 0.8 units so far. The team’s recorded an O/U mark of 1-2.

The Wolf Pack have gained 0.7 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 2-3 ATS and own an even O/U record of 2-2.

The Bulldogs have gone 3-1 straight up (SU) and they haven’t faced any MWC competition yet. The Wolf Pack are 3-2 SU overall and 1-0 SU in conference play.

These two schools met last year with the final outcome being a 41-21 win for Fresno State.

The Bulldogs are coming off a resounding 49-27 victory over Toledo last week. Marcus McMaryion completed 24 passes on 31 attempts for 368 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. Jordan Mims (59 rushing yards on 15 attempts, one TD) and Josh Hokit (59 yards on seven carries) led the running attack while Mims (six receptions, 126 yards, one TD) and KeeSean Johnson (six catches, 102 yards, two TDs) handled the receiving duties in the win.

Nevada is coming off of a 28-25 win over Air Force. Ty Gangi completed 24-of-33 passes for 259 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. Toa Taua (76 yards on 13 rush attempts) and Kelton Moore (47 yards on 11 carries) spearheaded the running game while Romeo Doubs (seven receptions, 40 yards) and Kaleb Fossum (five catches, 51 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.

Fresno State has run the ball on 55.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Nevada has an overall rush percentage of 46.0 percent. The Bulldogs have run for 165.5 yards/game and have 13 scores on the ground this year. The Wolf Pack are putting up 169.0 rush yards per game and have 11 total rushing TDs.

The Bulldogs offense has logged 274.3 yards/contest through the air overall and has eight passing TDs so far. The Wolf Pack have produced 283.2 pass yards per outing and have 12 total pass scores.

Defensively, Fresno State appears to have the upper hand in both facets. The team has let opponents run for an average of 122.5 yards and pass for 192.3 yards per game. The Nevada D has allowed 259.2 yards per game to opposing passers and 154.0 yards per game on the ground. The Bulldogs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.74 to opponents, while the Wolf Pack have given up a 7.14 ANY/A.

McMaryion has been more productive than Gangi lately, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 8.78for the season and 10.29 over the past two outings. Gangi’s ANY/A is 7.12 for the year and 6.94 over his last two outings.

Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Nevada Wolf Pack Free NCAA Betting Tip

SU Winner: Fresno State, ATS Winner: Fresno State, O/U: Under

Betting Trends

  • Fresno State was favored by 11 points in its last game and the O/U was 61.5. The over cashed and Fresno State covered in the 49-27 win over Toledo.
  • As a team, Fresno State has averaged 3.71052631578947 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.7 over its last two.
  • Nevada has averaged 6.0 yards per carry over its last three outings and 6.4 over its past two.
  • Nevada has lost four fumbles this season while Fresno State has lost two.
  • In its last three contests, Fresno State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Nevada was favored by 4 points in its previous match and the O/U was 62.5. The under cashed and Nevada failed to cover in the 28-25 victory over Air Force.
  • Over its last three matches, Nevada is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The Wolf Pack have made 13 pass plays of 30+ yards while the Bulldogs have produced 10 such plays.
  • The Fresno State defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Nevada has given up six such plays.
  • The Fresno State offense has created five rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Nevada has created 13 such runs.
  • The Bulldogs defense has allowed two rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Wolf Pack have given up seven such runs.
  • The Nevada defensive unit has sacked opposing QBs 15 times this season. Fresno State has produced just eight sacks.