Florida Gators vs. Vanderbilt Commodores: 10/13/2018 Free Betting Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

Two teams that like to mix in a lot of running plays, Commodores of Vanderbilt (+7) are gearing up to host their in-conference foe No. 14 Florida Gators (-7) at Vanderbilt Stadium. This crucial afternoon matchup kicks off at 12:00 p.m. ET and fans can witness the action live on ESPN.

Betting Preview: Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Florida Gators

In this Saturday Southeastern game, Florida is projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 7 points. If they want to play the moneyline, bettors would currently have to spend $300 in order to win $100 back on the Gators (-300). The Commodores are getting +220 moneyline odds. If one team can create a bunch of points early, it will likely result in a worthwhile betting opportunity in-game.

The early action has moved toward the Commodores. This game’s opening line was 8.

The Gators are 5-1 against the spread (ATS) and are down 1.8 units so far. The team’s posted an O/U record of 2-3.

The Commodores have gained 0.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 3-3 ATS and own an O/U record of 1-5.

The Gators have gone 5-1 straight up (SU), including 3-1 SU against conference opponents. The Commodores are 3-3 SU overall and 0-2 SU in conference play.

The Gators are coming off a 27-19 victory over LSU last week. Feleipe Franks completed only 12 passes on 27 attempts for 161 yards, along with one score and a pick. Lamical Perine (85 rushing yards on 17 attempts, two TDs) and Jordan Scarlett (65 yards on 14 carries) led the running attack while Van Jefferson (four receptions, 44 yards) and Josh Hammond (three catches, 85 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.

One week ago, Georgia knocked off this Vanderbilt team by a score of 41-13. The Commodores defensive unit allowed the Bulldogs to pass for 341 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 219 yards and two scores. D’Andre Swift had a solid outing in the win, posting 50 rushing yards on seven attempts, along with 49 yards on four catches for Georgia. For Vanderbilt, Kyle Shurmur completed 14-of-28 passes for 169 yards. Ke’Shawn Vaughn (79 rushing yards on nine attempts) handled the running game as C.J. Bolar (four receptions, 46 yards) and Trey Ellis (two catches, 26 yards) led the receiving corps in the loss.

Florida has run the ball on 56.7 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 54.5 percent across possessions in conference play. Vanderbilt has an overall run percentage of 50.8 percent, and has rushed the ball 47.0 percent of the time when playing SEC opponents. The Gators have rushed for 181.5 yards/game (including 165.5 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have eight touchdowns on the ground this year. The Commodores are averaging 159.0 rush yards per game (115.0 in conference) and have nine total rushing TDs.

If the results so far this season are any indication, then it seems like the Gators might hold an advantage in terms of efficiency in the ground game, since their backfield has generated 5.2 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 4.1 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Commodores have registered 4.8 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 4.4 to opponents.

The Gators offense has averaged 198.8 yards in the air overall (208.3 per game against conference opposition) and has 14 passing scores so far. The Commodores have put up 239.7 pass yards per contest (188 in the SEC) and have nine total pass TDs.

Florida should have an advantage when it comes to limiting the pass. The team’s allowed opponents to run for an average of 172.5 yards and throw for 148.5 yards per game. The Vanderbilt defense has allowed 233.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 165.2 yards per game to opposing runners. The Gators are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.06 to opponents, while the Commodores have allowed a 6.68 ANY/A.

Offensively, Franks is up to 903 passing yards this season. He’s connected on 62-of-122 attempts with 13 passing scores and only three interceptions. He has a 7.85 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 5.08 over the last two outings.

The Gators have tried to control tempo by feeding their running backs early and often. Along with Josh Hammond (102 yards, one TD), Lamical Perine (200 rush yards, two rush TDs, 25 receiving yards) and Jordan Scarlett (247 rush yards, two rush TDs) have been significant focal points in the Florida offensive scheme.

Kyle Shurmur has completed 91-of-158 passes for 1,103 yards, six TDs and two INTs for Vanderbilt. His ANY/A sits at 6.68 for the season and 7.45 across his past two games.

The Commodores will also try to control the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. Along with Kalija Lipscomb (322 receiving yards, four receiving TDs), Ke’Shawn Vaughn (293 rush yards, four rush TDs) and Khari Blasingame (150 rush yards, one rush TD, 51 receiving yards) have seen a multitude of looks lately.

When these two teams faced one another last year, Florida won by two touchdowns 38-24.

Florida Gators vs. Vanderbilt Commodores Free NCAA Betting Tip

SU Winner: Florida, ATS Winner: Florida

Team Betting Trends

  • Both teams have produced three pass plays of 40 or more yards. The Gators have have made nine pass plays of 30+ yards while the Commodores have created five such plays.
  • Both defenses have allowed two pass plays of 40 or more yards. The Florida defense has given up four pass plays of 30+ yards while Vanderbilt has given up seven such plays.
  • The Florida offense has created nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Vanderbilt has created seven such runs.
  • The Gators defense has allowed 13 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Commodores have given up nine such runs.
  • The Florida defense has 20 sacks on the year while Vanderbilt has just 11.
  • Florida has produced 4.81081081081081 yards per carry across its past three games and 4.3 over its last two.
  • Vanderbilt has averaged 5.1 yards per carry over its last three outings and 6.3 over its past two.
  • Over its last three matchups, Vanderbilt is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Florida was favored by one point in its last game and the O/U going into it was 44. The over cashed and Florida covered in the 27-19 victory over LSU.
  • Over its last three contests, Florida is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • Vanderbilt was favored by 26 points in its previous outing and the Over/Under going into it was 56. The under cashed and Vanderbilt did not cover in that 41-13 loss to Georgia.