Florida Gators at Mississippi State Bulldogs: College Football Free Betting Pick

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The Florida Gators (+8) are traveling north to battle their conference foe No. 23 Mississippi State Bulldogs at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. ESPN will televise the action and the matchup is scheduled to start at 6:00 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Florida Gators

In this Saturday Southeastern game, Mississippi State is projected as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 8 points. The Gators are also receiving +260 moneyline odds while the Bulldogs are -340. It appears that this showdown should have some in-game betting opportunities.

The line opened at -7 but the general public has been siding with the Bulldogs.

The Gators are down 5.0 units so far and 3-1 against the spread (ATS). The team has recorded an O/U mark of 1-2.

The Bulldogs have lost 3.0 units this season. The team is 3-1 ATS and also has an O/U record of 1-2.

The Gators are 3-1 straight up (SU), including 1-1 SU against conference opponents. The Bulldogs are 3-1 SU overall and 0-1 SU in conference play.

The Gators are coming off a resounding 47-21 victory over Tennessee last week where Feleipe Franks completed just nine passes on 18 attempts for 172 yards and three touchdowns. Jordan Scarlett (77 rushing yards on 11 attempts, one TD) led the ground attack. Freddie Swain (two receptions, 88 yards, one TD) and Tyrie Cleveland (two catches, 43 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties in the win.

One week ago, Kentucky took care of this Mississippi State team by a score of 28-7. Nick Fitzgerald completed 16-of-32 passes for 145 yards and one interception. Fitzgerald (20 rushing yards on 16 attempts, one TD) handled the running game as Osirus Mitchell (six receptions, 65 yards) and Kylin Hill (three catches, 19 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.

Each team sports a similar (57-43) run-pass ratio on the season. The Gators have rushed for 189.0 yards per game (including 164.5 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have six scores on the ground this year. The Bulldogs are totaling 247.8 rush yards per game and have 13 total rushing TDs.

If 2018 results can translate to this game, then it seems like the Bulldogs might own an edge in all aspects of the ground game, as their backfield has generated 6.6 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 3.2 YPC to opponents. The Gators have rushed for 5.8 yards per carry while allowing 4.2 YPC to opponents.

The Gators offense has averaged 194.5 yards through the air overall (209.0 per game versus conference opposition) and has 12 passing TDs so far. The Bulldogs have recorded 243.3 pass yards per game and have nine total pass scores.

Defensively, Florida has allowed opponents to run for an average of 187.8 yards and pass for 150.5 yards per game. The Mississippi State defense has given up 148.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 121.0 yards per game on the ground. The Bulldogs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.08 to opponents, while the Gators have given up a 3.87 ANY/A.

Offensively, Franks is up to 623 passing yards on the year, and has completed 42-of-80 attempts with 10 passing scores and only one interception. He has a pristine 8.93 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 9.14 over the last two games.

The Gators have tried to maintain tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. Backfield mates Dameon Pierce (138 rush yards, one rush TD) and Jordan Scarlett (126 rush yards, one rush TD) have brought significant production to the offensive gameplans for Florida.

Nick Fitzgerald has completed 27-of-59 passes for 299 yards, two TDs and two INTs for Mississippi State. His ANY/A sits at a very poor 3.65 for the year and 5.93 over his past two games.

The Bulldogs should also look to control the clock by turning to their backfield. In addition to Aeris Williams (35 receiving yards, one receiving TD), Nick Fitzgerald (179 rush yards, one rush TD) and Stephen Guidry (zero rush yards, 117 receiving yards) have seen a lot of touches recently.

These two SEC foes did not get a chance to face one another a year ago.

Florida Gators vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Free Pick

SU Winner: Mississippi State, ATS Winner: Mississippi State

Team Betting Trends

  • The Mississippi State defense has registered 13 sacks on the year while Florida has nine.
  • Mississippi State has lost zero fumbles this season while Florida has lost two.
  • The Gators offense has registered two pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Bulldogs have put up three such plays.
  • The Florida defense has allowed two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Mississippi State has given up one such play.
  • The Florida offense has created seven rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Mississippi State has created nine such runs.
  • The Gators defense has allowed 10 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Bulldogs have given up four such runs.
  • Florida has averaged 5.98913043478261 yards per rush attempt across its past three contests and 6.7 over its last two.
  • Mississippi State has averaged 6.8 yards per carry over its last three games and 5.2 over its last two.