Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Detroit Tigers will be facing off against their divisional rival Minnesota Twins at Target Field. The game gets underway 8:10 p.m. ET and Fox Sports North will be showing the matchup.

Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins Odds

Oddsmakers are listing Detroit (+145) as the underdog to Minnesota (-155). Bettors can gamble on the games total with odds sitting at -110 for over 9.5 runs and -110 for under 9.5. Runline odds sit at -150 for taking the Tigers +1.5 runs and +130 for the Twins -1.5 runs.

The Twins are 20-23 SU and 24-18 ATS. They’ve lost 4.3 units for bettors taking the moneyline while earning 3.8 units against the spread (ATS). Minnesota has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven. The Tigers are 20-27 SU and have gone 27-19 ATS. In total, the teams gained 0.2 units for moneyline bettors through the early portions of the season and 4.6 units ATS. Detroithas covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven.

Minnesota games have had an over/under record of 22-19-1 so far in 2018. The Tigers have an over/under record of 21-24-1.

Matthew Boyd will get the start for the visiting Tigers. The southpaw Boyd is 2-3 with a 3.19 ERA and 41 strikeouts. He has yet to face Minnesota this year, but he made six starts against the Twins in 2017, putting together a 2-1 record against them with a 4.01 ERA and 33 strikeouts.

The Twins are putting the ball in the right hand of Lance Lynn (1-4, 7.47 ERA, 2.04 WHIP), who has 41 strikeouts and 29 walks this season. Lynn did not record a start against the Tigers in 2017.

Detroit’s pitchers have allowed 4.7 runs per game and its starters own a 4.19 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 7.20 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.58, along with a WHIP of 1.25 and a K/9 of 8.19.

The Tigers offense has slashed .254/.313/.407 on its way to 4.3 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 2.6 per game over the teams last five contests (1-4 SU).

Detroit’s hitters have been powered by right fielder Nicholas Castellanos and third baseman Jeimer Candelario. Castellanos is slashing .316/.367/.500 with five home runs, 26 RBIs and 24 runs scored, while Candelario (.272/.359/.497) is up to five homers, 16 RBIs and 21 runs scored.

Castellanos did not do especially well against righty pitching on the road last year. Over 239 such plate appearances, he maintained a slash line of .212/.264/.360 (compared to his overall season line of .272/.320/.490).

For the home team, Minnesota’s pitchers have given up 4.7 runs per game overall in 2018. The clubs starters have a 4.20 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.69 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 9.3 K/9. In eight divisional games, Twins starters have an ERA of 3.18 and the bullpens ERA is 1.95.

The Minnesota offense is putting up 4.2 runs per outing, including 4.4 per game against divisional foes and 3.8 per game over its last five. The team has hit .240/.339/.364 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that span.

The Twins batters have been led by shortstop Eduardo Escobar and left fielder Eddie Rosario. Escobar is hitting .292/.347/.539 with seven home runs, 21 RBIs and 25 runs scored, and Rosario’s line sits at .292/.316/.542 with nine homers, 27 RBIs and 29 runs.

Rosario appeared to have some trouble facing lefties at home in 2017. Across 90 such plate appearances, he slashed .291/.300/.407 (his total season line was .290/.328/.507).

The Tigers have lost 1.9 units and are 19-15 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 13 of those games, compared to 20 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Twins have lost 0.6 units and are 5-4 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in five of those games, compared to four that’ve gone under.

Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins Free Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Twins, ATS Winner – Tigers, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The Tigers have lost five of their last six games SU.
  • Minnesota has recorded 18.6 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 18.6 over its last five.
  • The Tigers have hit nine home runs in their last 10 games. The Twins have hit seven over their last 10.