Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Detroit Tigers will face off against their divisional rival Minnesota Twins at Target Field. The matchup will begin at 8:10 p.m. ET and fans can tune in to Fox Sports North to catch the action.

Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins Odds

Vegas is listing Minnesota (-145) as the favorite over Detroit (+135). The total sits at 8.5 runs and gamblers can wager on the over for -120 or the under for an even +100. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the most recent odds sitting at -160 for the Tigers +1.5 runs and +140 for the Twins -1.5.

The Tigers are 64-93 SU and are 80-76 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 7.5 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 7.0 units ATS. Detroit has covered the spread just once over its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven. The Twins, on the other hand, are 72-84 SU and 81-74 ATS. They’ve lost 11.3 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 3.0 units ATS. Minnesota has covered the spread in each of its last seven games and the under has cashed in four of those seven.

Twins games have an over/under record of 76-76-3 in 2018. Detroit has been a good under bet with a total record of 67-81-8.

Matthew Boyd will get the start for the visiting Tigers. The left-handed Boyd (9-12, 4.16 ERA) has recorded 156 strikeouts in 166.2 innings so far. He’s 1-2 with 15 strikeouts and a 3.80 ERA against Minnesota this year (four starts).

The Twins are handing the ball to righty Jake Odorizzi (7-10, 4.35 ERA), who’s got 159 punchouts and 65 walks, as well as a WHIP of 1.30. Odorizzi is 1-0 with 17 strikeouts and a 4.41 ERA across three starts against Detroit this year.

Detroit’s pitching staff allowed 4.8 runs per game and its starters own a 4.50 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 7.39 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.44, along with a WHIP of 1.30.

Tigers hitters have slashed .242/.302/.382 on their way to 3.9 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.9 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.0 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).

Right fielder Nicholas Castellanos and third baseman Jeimer Candelario have led Detroit’s hitters. Castellanos is slashing .301/.357/.502 with 22 home runs, 87 RBIs and 84 runs scored, while Candelario is hitting .226 with 19 homers, 53 RBIs and 75 runs scored.

In the home-team dugout, Minnesota’s pitchers have allowed 4.8 runs per game overall in 2018. The club’s starters have an ERA of 4.57, a WHIP of 1.39 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.2. The bullpen has a 4.57 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 9.0 K/9. In 70 divisional games, Twins starters have an ERA of 4.68 and the bullpen’s ERA is 3.32.

The Minnesota hitters have put up 4.4 runs per contest, including 4.5 per game against divisional foes and 4.6 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .256/.303/.358 over its last five games and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

The Twins’ batters have been led by outfielder Eddie Rosario and first baseman Joe Mauer. Rosario is slashing .288/.323/.479 with 24 home runs, 77 RBIs and 87 runs scored, and Mauer’s line is .278/.346/.375 with six homers, 46 RBIs and 57 runs.

The Tigers have lost 12.2 units and are 57-60 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has cashed in 46 of those games, compared to 64 that’ve hit the under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Twins have lost 7.2 units and are 21-22 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 19 of those games, as opposed to 23 that’ve cashed the under.

Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins Free Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Twins, ATS Winner – Tigers, O/U – UNDER

Betting Notes

  • The over has hit in three of Detroit’s last seven games.
  • Minnesota has recorded 26.2 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 22.6 over its last five.
  • The Tigers have hit seven home runs in their last 10 games, including five over their last five.