Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins Free Pick

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Miguel Cabrera and the Detroit Tigers are ready to take the field against their divisional rival Minnesota Twins at Target Field in a Saturday showdown. The matchup will begin at 7:10 p.m. ET and fans can tune in to Fox Sports North to catch the action.

Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins Odds

Las Vegas has Minnesota (-315) as the favorite over Detroit (+260). If you’re thinking the game’s total is going to go below 10.5 runs scored, then bookmakers are teeing up -105 odds to play the under. Taking the over can give you -115 odds. There’s a runline of Tigers +1.5 (+125) and Twins -1.5 (-145) for this matchup.

The Twins are 77-51 straight up (SU) and 70-57 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 15.5 units for moneyline bettors and 8.6 units ATS. Minnesota has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total went over in four of those seven. The Tigers have gone 39-87 SU this year and are 52-73 against the spread. In total, the club has lost 31.0 units for moneyline gamblers and 28.0 units ATS. Detroit has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.

Minnesota games have a 66-56-5 over/under record in 2019. Tigers games have gone under 61 times, gone over 55 times and pushed on nine instances.

The right-handed Edwin Jackson is the projected starter for Detroit. Jackson is 3-6 with an 8.46 ERA and 33 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Twins this year and did not record a start against them in 2018, either.

The Twins are turning to righty Kyle Gibson (11-6, 4.40 ERA), who has 133 strikeouts and 45 walks as well as a 1.31 WHIP. Gibson is 0-1 with eight strikeouts and a 9.00 ERA in one start against Detroit this year.

Detroit’s pitchers have allowed 5.5 runs per game and its starters own a 5.16 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 8.60 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.04, along with a K-per-9 of 8.21.

The Tigers offense has slashed .237/.296/.387 on its way to 3.6 runs scored per game this season, including 4.2 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.2 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).

Miguel Cabrera and Nicholas Castellanos continue to lead Detroit’s offense. Cabrera is slashing .281/.342/.388 with nine home runs, 50 RBIs and 33 runs scored, while Castellanos has a .273 average with 11 homers, 37 RBIs and 57 runs scored.

For the home team, Minnesota’s pitchers have yielded 4.7 runs per game overall this season. Its starters have an ERA of 4.06, a WHIP of 1.27 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.2. The bullpen has a 4.40 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 9.3 K/9. In 48 games against divisional opponents, Twins starters have an ERA of 3.92 and the bullpen’s ERA is 2.84.

The Minnesota hitters are putting up 5.8 runs per outing, including 5.5 per game against divisional foes and 6.0 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .272/.325/.506 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

Shortstop Jorge Polanco and left fielder Eddie Rosario have led the Twins’ batters this year. Polanco is slashing .295/.358/.494 with 19 home runs, 66 RBIs and 82 runs scored, while Rosario’s line is .282/.307/.515 with 27 homers, 85 RBIs and 74 runs.

The Tigers have lost 27.9 units and are 37-61 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 40 of those games, as opposed to 51 that’ve gone under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Twins have netted 17.9 units and are 53-45 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 49 of those games, as opposed to 46 that’ve cashed the under.

Tigers at Twins MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Twins, ATS Winner – Tigers, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • Detroit has logged 16 extra-base hits over its last five games. Minnesota has 25 XBH over its last five.
  • The Twins have dropped three of their last four games SU.
  • The Detroit defense has allowed four errors over the last 10 games, compared to 10 errors for Minnesota over its last 10.
  • The Tigers have hit 10 home runs in their last 10 games, including eight over their last five.
  • The Tigers have a total OPS of .683 this season and an OPS of .672 when facing right-handed pitchers. The Twins’ OPS sits at .839 overall and .820 against righties.