Denver Nuggets vs. Boston Celtics Betting Prediction 03/18/19

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The Denver Nuggets (46-22) and their outstanding offense visit Boston as 3-point underdogs to play the Celtics (43-27) and their superb defense. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 222.5 points and action gets underway at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday, March 18, 2019.

Denver Nuggets vs. Boston Celtics Betting Odds

Both teams were triumphant in their last game. The Celtics (10.5-point favorites) were victorious over the Atlanta Hawks 129-120, while the Nuggets (7-point favorites) edged the Indiana Pacers 102-100. The Boston game went 15 points over the projected point total of 234, while the Denver game went 12 points under the projected point total of 214.

The Nuggets had an effective field goal percentage of 0.543 (above their season average of 0.531) and had a better offensive rebounding percentage (21.4 vs. 21.1). The Celtics, meanwhile, knocked down 28 of their 37 free throws (75.7 percent) and had a better turnover percentage (11.4 vs. 13.3). Boston’s Kyrie Irving had a good outing, contributing 30 points, 11 rebounds and nine assists. Meanwhile, Denver was lifted by Paul Millsap, who had 15 points and 13 rebounds.

In their first matchup this season, Jamal Murray led the Nuggets to a 115-107 victory. He was the game’s leading scorer with 48 points. Denver covered as a 2-point favorite and the two teams combined for 222 points, which was over the projected point total of 210.5. One of Denver’s biggest advantages was getting to the free throw line. They made 28 trips to the line, while Boston went just 12 times.

Of the Nuggets’ 68 games, 38 have gone under the total. Denver holds records of 46-22 straight up (SU) and 36-32 against the spread (ATS).

Unlike Denver, Celtics games tend to go over the O/U total (55.7 percent). Further, Boston owns records of 43-27 SU and 33-35-2 ATS.

From an effective field goal percentage perspective, Boston should have a significant edge. The upper-echelon Celtics offense ranks fourth in the NBA in that metric at 0.536, while the Denver defense is ranked 16th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.523).

Denver Nuggets at Boston Celtics ATS Pick

Prediction: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Nuggets rank 16th in three pointers allowed per game (32.2) while the Celtics rank 26th (33.6).
  • Denver ranks second in second chance points per game (15.5) while Boston ranks 22nd (12.4).
  • The Celtics rank fourth in points off turnovers per game (18.9) while the Nuggets rank 19th (16.0).
  • Boston ranks second in blocks allowed per game (3.8) while Denver ranks 15th (5.1).
  • Boston ranks fourth in steals per game (8.8) while Denver ranks 15th in steals allowed per game (7.5).
  • The Nuggets rank fourth in points in the paint per game (53.1) while the Celtics rank 23rd (44.8).
  • The Celtics rank sixth in assists per game (26.5) while the Nuggets rank 18th in assists allowed per game (24.8).
  • Denver ranks fifth in fast break points allowed per game (12.0) while Boston ranks 13th (13.6).
  • Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (41.8) while Boston ranks 20th (45.6).
  • Denver is 21-1 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Boston is 15-4.
  • When scoring more than 100 points, the Celtics are 43-20 and the Nuggets are 44-17.
  • Denver is 13-19 ATS on the road, while Boston is 20-16 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone over in 22 of the Celtics’ 36 home games, while 20 of the Nuggets’ 32 road games have gone under.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Celtics are 1-3-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Nuggets are 2-3.
  • In their last five games, Boston has 4 overs and 1 under, while Denver has 4 unders and 1 over.
  • During their last five games, the Celtics have scored an average of 120.2 points per game (7.4 above their season average) and allowed an average of 119.2 points per game (11.7 above their season average).
  • The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 5.6, up from 5.0 for the season.