Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors ATS Odds

Jose VasquezArticles, Basketball, NBA

The Golden State Warriors (32-8), the NBA’s top scoring team, will square off against the Denver Nuggets (21-18) at ORACLE Arena. Action begins at 10:30 p.m. ET on Monday, January 8, 2018, and it can be seen on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt.

Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors Betting Preview

The Nuggets were beaten by the Sacramento Kings in their last outing, 106-98. With 19 points on 8-for-11 shooting, Trey Lyles was the top scorer from either team. Sacramento had a turnover percentage of 8.1 (better than their season average of 12.9). Denver, meanwhile, did an excellent job of making free throws (15-21; 71.4 percent).

In the Warriors last game, they defeated the Los Angeles Clippers, 121-105. Golden State received a boost from Stephen Curry, who was the top scorer from either team with 45 points on 11-for-21 shooting. Golden State played a flawless game. They had a great offensive rebounding percentage of 31.4 (above their season average of 21.5) and a free throw rate of 0.319 (above their season average of 0.192). For those same stats, Los Angeles was 20.0 and 0.264, respectively.

The sweet-shooting offense of Golden State will go head-to-head against the bottom-tier defense of Denver. The Warriors currently rank first in effective field goal percentage (0.575), while the Nuggets are 25th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.533). The Warriors figure to have the advantage on that side of the ball. Moreover, the Nuggets, who rank second in offensive rebounding percentage (26.5 percent), will attempt to take advantage of the Warriors, who rank 22nd in defensive rebounding percentage (76.7 percent).

In terms of the O/U total, these teams are complete opposites. Denver games have finished under 56.4 percent of the time, while 55.0 percent of games including Golden State have gone over. The Warriors have the substantial advantage straight up (SU) (32-8 vs. 21-18), but both teams are near the .500 mark against the spread (ATS).

Jamal Murray has been playing at a high level over the last five games for Denver, averaging 22.6 points, 5.8 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game.

These two teams have already met twice this year, each winning once. Nikola Jokic put up 18 points and nine rebounds in the most recent game, in which the Nuggets, who were 8-point underdogs, beat the Warriors 96-81. The two teams combined to put up 177 points, which was 39.5 points below the projected point total of 216.5 points. Denver’s 0.506 effective field goal percentage was its biggest advantage over Golden State, who had a rate of 0.399.

Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Free Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Nuggets average 14.0 fast break points per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. The Warriors rank 25th in fast break points allowed per game (13.7).
  • Denver ranks third in points in the paint per game (48.9) while Golden State ranks 19th in points allowed in the paint per game (45.3).
  • Golden State ranks first in blocks per game (8.3) while Denver ranks 18th (4.7).
  • Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (41.0) while Golden State ranks 10th (42.1).
  • Denver is 8-12-1 ATS on the road, while Golden State is 9-11 ATS at home.
  • Of the Nuggets 21 road games, they have 12 unders and 9 overs.
  • The Warriors have 11 unders and 9 overs in 20 home games.
  • When holding opponents below 100 points, Golden State is 10-2 and Denver is 11-2.
  • In games where they reach 100 points, the Nuggets are 17-11 and the Warriors are 29-5.
  • The Warriors rank 11th in points off turnovers per game (17.5) while the Nuggets rank 28th in points off turnovers allowed per game (19.4).
  • Denver ranks first in second chance points per game (14.8) while Golden State ranks 26th in second chance points allowed per game (13.4).
  • The Warriors average 30.7 assists per game, which ranks first in the NBA. The Nuggets rank 24th in assists allowed per game (24.1).
  • The Nuggets rank eighth in three pointers attempted per game (30.6) while the Warriors rank 20th in three pointers allowed per game (29.4).
  • Golden State ranks seventh in steals per game (8.4) while Denver ranks 26th in steals allowed per game (8.4).

Betting Trends:

  • Golden State is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under in their last five games.
  • Over their last five games, Denver is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
  • The Warriors average margin of victory in their last five games has been 6.2, down from 9.8 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 111.6 points per game (4.2 above their season average) and allowed an average of 108.6 points per game (3.0 above their season average).