Denver Broncos at New York Jets: Free Week 5 Betting Prediction

Jose VasquezArticles, Football, NFL

The Jets (-1) are ready to welcome the Denver Broncos to MetLife Stadium. CBS will broadcast the action and this early afternoon matchup is scheduled to get going at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Week 5 Betting Preview: New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos

New York is a live dog and is currently getting 1 point in this AFC game. The Broncos are also receiving -105 moneyline odds while the Jets are -115. Some solid live betting scenarios could be unveiled during this matchup, and oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 43.5 points.

The over/under has not moved after it was set initially at 43.5. Having said that, the opening line was 0 so has recently moved down to -1.

The Broncos are 0-2-1 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 1.0 unit so far. The team’s posted an O/U mark of 1-2.

The Jets are down 1.2 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 1-3 ATS and have an even O/U record of 2-2.

The Broncos have gone 2-2 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Jets are 1-3 SU.

The Broncos are most-recently on the rebound after a 27-23 defeat to Kansas City last week. Case Keenum completed 21 passes for 245 yards and one interception. Phillip Lindsay (69 rushing yards on 12 attempts, one TD) and Royce Freeman (67 yards on eight carries, one TD) propelled the ground attack while Emmanuel Sanders (five receptions, 45 yards) and Jeff Heuerman (four catches, 57 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.

New York most-recently dropped a 31-12 game to Jacksonville last week. Sam Darnold completed 17-of-34 passes for 167 yards and one touchdown. Bilal Powell (26 rushing yards on eight attempts) handled the running game as Quincy Enunwa (four receptions, 66 yards) and Powell (four catches, 26 yards) led the receiving corps in the loss.

Each team sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Denver has run the ball on 42.9 percent of its offensive possessions while New York has an overall rush percentage of 43.8. The Broncos have run for 148.3 yards per game and have six touchdowns on the ground this year. The Jets are putting up 88.0 rushing yards per game and have four total rush TDs.

The Broncos offensive scheme has averaged 247.0 yards through the air overall and has three passing scores so far. The Jets have produced 217.0 pass yards per outing and have four total pass TDs.

On the defensive side of the ball, Denver has allowed 93.8 rush yards and 291.8 pass yards per game. The New York defense has allowed 269.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 108.3 yards per game to opposing runners. The Jets are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.12 to opposing QBs, while the Broncos have given up a 7.01 ANY/A.

Passing-wise, Keenum is up to 796 yards on the year, and has connected on 61 percent of his 107 attempts with three scores through the air and five interceptions. Keenum’s got a 5.33 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 4.18 over the last two outings.

The Broncos will likely try to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. In addition to wideout Emmanuel Sanders (276 receiving yards and one touchdown), Royce Freeman (166 rush yards, two rush TDs) and Phillip Lindsay (247 rush yards, one rush TD, one receiving TD) have been significant focal points in the offensive game scripts for Denver.

In the home locker room, Sam Darnold has managed to complete 58-of-96 passes for 699 yards, four TDs and three INTs. Darnold’s ANY/A stands at 5.66 for the year and 3.36 across his last two outings.

The Jets also prefer to rely on their backfield. In addition to Bilal Powell (105 receiving yards, one receiving TD), Quincy Enunwa (zero rush yards, 221 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Jermaine Kearse (zero rush yards, 22 receiving yards) have seen a lot of touches recently.

When these two squads met last year, Denver won soundly 23-0.

Denver Broncos at New York Jets Betting Prediction

SU Winner: Broncos, ATS Winner: Broncos, O/U: Over

Team Betting Trends

  • Each team defense has recorded 10 sacks this season.
  • The New York offense has lost three fumbles in 2018 while Denver has yet to lose any.
  • Each team has produced two pass plays of 40 yards or more. The Broncos have have made five pass plays of 30+ yards while the Jets have accounted for two such plays.
  • The Denver defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while New York has given up one such play.
  • Both defenses have produced two rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Denver offense has recorded 20 running plays of 10+ yards while New York has accounted for nine such plays.
  • The Broncos defense has allowed two rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Jets have given up five such runs.
  • New York was favored by 7 points in its previous match and the O/U was set at 40.5. The over cashed and New York failed to cover in the team’s 31-12 defeat to Jacksonville.
  • Over its last three matchups, New York is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Over its last three contests, Denver is 0-2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Denver was favored by 6 points in its last game and the O/U was set at 46.5. The over cashed and Denver failed to cover in the 27-23 defeat to Kansas City.
  • As a team, Denver has averaged 6.04054054054054 yards per rush attempt across its last three games and 6.1 over its last two.
  • New York has averaged 2.9 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.2 over its past two.