Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder ATS Odds

The Oklahoma City Thunder (20-16) will be at home in Chesapeake Energy Arena when they take on the Dallas Mavericks (12-25). Tip-off is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET on Sunday, December 31, 2017, and it can be seen on Fox SportsNet Oklahoma.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview

In the Mavericks last matchup, they defeated the New Orleans Pelicans, 128-120. With 21 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists, Dennis Smith Jr. led the way for Dallas with his zeroth triple-double this year. The Mavericks held the Pelicans to an offensive rebounding percentage of 9.5 (below their season average of 20.3) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.687 (above their season average of 0.511).

The Thunder are hoping for a better outcome after their 97-95 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks in their last contest. Russell Westbrook was the top scorer from either team with 40 points on 16-for-34 shooting. Milwaukee had a turnover percentage of 8.9 (better than their season average of 12.2). Oklahoma City, on the other hand, had a better free throw rate (0.145 vs. 0.094).

Expect this one to be a clinic on boxing out as two of the leagues top rebounding teams battle. The Thunder are among the leagues elite on the offensive glass, ranking first in offensive rebounding percentage at 27.5 percent. Meanwhile, Dallas ranks fourth in the league at corralling defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 79.9 percent. Moreover, the Mavericks rank third in turnover percentage (13.0 percent), while the Thunder rank first in opponents turnover percentage (16.5 percent).

Of Dallas 37 games, 20 have finished under the O/U total, while 22 of Oklahoma City’s 36 games have finished under the O/U total. The Thunder hold the sizable advantage straight up (SU) (20-16 vs. 12-25), but the Mavericks have been superior against the spread (ATS) (18-19 vs. 13-22-1).

Both teams have had a player heat up over their last five games. For the Mavericks, it’s been Dirk Nowitzki, who has averaged 16.6 points, 5.6 rebounds and 1.2 blocks, while the Thunder have received solid contributions from Westbrook (28.4 points, 11.2 assists, 8.2 rebounds and 2.4 steals).

These two teams have met twice already this year, each winning once. In the most recent game, the Thunder lost 97-81, unable to cover as 6-point favorites. Westbrook scored a game-high 28 points and also had 12 rebounds and nine assists. The two teams combined to put up 178 points, which was 27 points below the projected point total of 205 points. Dallas effective field goal percentage was its largest advantage over Oklahoma City. The Mavericks had a rate of 0.593 while the Thunder posted a mark of 0.444.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder ATS Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Thunder, ATS Winner – Thunder, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Thunder rank fifth in fast break points per game (14.2) while the Mavericks rank last in fast break points allowed per game (14.7).
  • Dallas averages 31.8 three pointers per game, which ranks fifth in the NBA. Oklahoma City ranks 23rd in three pointers allowed per game (30.4).
  • Oklahoma City ranks fifth in rebounds allowed per game (41.2) while Dallas ranks 25th (44.9).
  • Dallas ranks 19th in assists per game (22.1) while Oklahoma City ranks 25th (20.8).
  • On the road, Dallas is 9-9 ATS with 10 unders and 8 overs.
  • Oklahoma City is 8-10-1 ATS at home with 12 unders and 7 overs.
  • When allowing less than 100 points, Dallas is 10-8 and Oklahoma City is 13-5.
  • The Mavericks are 7-10 when they reach the century mark, while the Thunder are 17-6.
  • The Thunder rank eighth in blocks per game (5.1) while the Mavericks rank 26th (3.8).
  • Oklahoma City ranks second in points off turnovers per game (19.1) while Dallas ranks last (13.3).
  • The Thunder rank first in steals per game (9.8) while the Mavericks rank 27th (6.6).
  • The Thunder rank 23rd in points in the paint per game (41.4) while the Mavericks rank 29th (38.4).
  • Oklahoma City ranks fourth in second chance points per game (14.3) while Dallas ranks 29th (9.5).

Bettings Trends:

  • Oklahoma City is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs in their last five games.
  • Over their last five games, Dallas is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
  • The Thunder’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 7.4, up from 3.2 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 106.4 points per game (5.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 106.4 points per game (3.3 above their season average).