Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves ATS Prediction 03/01/20

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The Dallas Mavericks (36-24) will travel to the Target Center to meet the Minnesota Timberwolves (17-41). The game starts at 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 1, 2020, and will air on Fox Sports – Southwest.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Odds

Both teams failed to cover as underdogs in their last matchup. The Timberwolves (8-point underdogs) were defeated by the Orlando Magic, 136-125, while the Mavericks (2.5-point underdogs) fell to the Miami Heat, 126-118. Both games went over their projected point totals. The Minnesota game went 27 points over the projected point total of 234, while the Dallas game went 16.5 points over the projected point total of 227.5.

Dallas was lights out from beyond the arc (21-50; 42.0 percent) while Minnesota had a better turnover percentage (12.4 vs. 12.2). Juancho Hernangomez had a good game for Minnesota, finishing with 18 points, 13 rebounds and five assists. Dallas received a boost from Kristaps Porzingis, who had 24 points and 13 rebounds.

In their two matchups this season, the Mavericks have won both. In their most recent game, the two teams combined to put up 262 points, well over the projected point total of 239. Dallas won 139-123, covering as a 14-point favorite. Dallas won the rebounding battle. The Mavericks had more offensive rebounds (14 vs. seven), defensive rebounds (40 vs. 35) and total rebounds (54 vs. 42). D’Angelo Russell was the game’s top overall scorer with 29 points.

Matchups involving the Mavericks have a tendency to finish over the total (63.3 percent). Dallas holds records of 36-24 straight up (SU) and 35-25 against the spread (ATS).

Timberwolves games also tend to go over the total (58.6 percent). Moreover, Minnesota is 17-41 SU and 20-36-2 ATS.

The Mavericks’ Tim Hardaway Jr. has been playing well over his last five games, averaging 22 points per game. Meanwhile, Malik Beasley has averaged 23 points,5.6 rebounds during that same time frame for the Timberwolves.

This game should be a matchup of conflicting paces. Minnesota has preferred to play up-tempo (first in possessions per game), while Dallas has been more methodical (20th in possessions per game). Furthermore, the Mavericks’ top-ranked offense (offensive efficiency of 115.1) will square off against the Timberwolves’ 21st-ranked defense (defensive efficiency of 110.6).

Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves Odds Pick

Free Prediction: SU Winner – Timberwolves, ATS Winner – Timberwolves, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Timberwolves rank 12th in points in the paint per game (48.6) while the Mavericks rank 26th (44.5).
  • Dallas ranks fourth in rebounds per game (47.0) while Minnesota ranks 29th in rebounds allowed per game (47.6).
  • The Timberwolves rank 10th in fast break points allowed per game (12.7) while the Mavericks rank 29th (16.7).
  • Dallas ranks fifth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.8) while Minnesota ranks 23rd (17.8).
  • Minnesota averages 39.9 three pointers per game, which ranks third in the league. Dallas ranks 18th in three pointers allowed per game (34.2).
  • The Timberwolves rank third in steals per game (8.6) while the Mavericks rank 27th (6.0).
  • The Mavericks average 14.4 second chance points per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. The Timberwolves rank 22nd in second chance points allowed per game (13.6).
  • Dallas ranks third in blocks allowed per game (3.9) while Minnesota ranks 26th (5.6).
  • Minnesota is 2-1 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Dallas is 8-0.
  • The Mavericks are 36-22 when they reach the century mark, while the Timberwolves are 16-34.
  • Minnesota is 6-21-1 ATS at home, while Dallas is 22-8 ATS on the road.
  • The Mavericks have 19 overs and 11 unders in 30 road games.
  • The Timberwolves have 15 overs and 13 unders in 28 home games.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Mavericks are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Timberwolves are 2-3.
  • In their last five games, Dallas has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Minnesota has 5 overs.
  • The Mavericks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 5.2, down from 5.9 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Timberwolves have scored an average of 122.0 points per game (8.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 131.2 points per game (13.9 above their season average).