Dallas Mavericks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers ATS Prediction

Jose VasquezArticles, Basketball, NBA

A five-game home winning streak is on the line for the Cleveland Cavaliers (46-30), who will be 11-point favorites when they meet the Dallas Mavericks (23-53) at Quicken Loans Arena. The games Over/Under (O/U) opened at 217.5 points and it will air on Fox Sports – Ohio at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, April 1, 2018.

Dallas Mavericks at Cleveland Cavaliers Betting Odds

In their last outing, the Cavaliers defeated the New Orleans Pelicans, 107-102, while the Mavericks lost a winnable game to the Minnesota Timberwolves, 93-92.

Cleveland dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had a free throw rate of 0.122 (matching their season average) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 20.9 (above their season average of 20.0). For those same stats, New Orleans had marks of 0.056 and 16.3, respectively. Dallas, on the other hand, held Minnesota to an effective field goal percentage of 0.470 (below their season average of 0.526). LeBron James had a solid performance for Cleveland with 27 points, 11 assists and nine rebounds. Harrison Barnes had a good outing for Dallas, contributing 19 points.

The sweet-shooting offense of Cleveland (third in the NBA with an effective field goal percentage 0.547) will go head-to-head against the bottom-tier defense of Dallas (22nd in effective field goal percentage allowed 0.531). The Cavaliers should have the advantage on that side of the ball. The Mavericks should have an edge in terms of ball security. They rank 3rd at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.1 percent), while the Cavaliers force the fourth-fewest turnovers in the NBA (opponents turnover percentage of 12.9 percent).

Of the Mavericks 76 games, 41 have finished under the O/U total. Dallas holds records of 23-53 straight up (SU) and 39-37 against the spread (ATS).

Contrary to Dallas, games including the Cavaliers have finished over the total 50.0 percent of the time. Cleveland is 46-30 SU, but they are just 28-47-1 ATS.

In their first matchup this season, Kevin Love led the Cavaliers to a 111-104 victory. He notched a double-double with 29 points and 15 rebounds. Cleveland covered as a 6-point favorite and the two teams combined for 215 points, which was just over the projected point total of 214.5. Cleveland was effective at getting and making free throws. The Cavaliers made 29 of their 35 free throws (82.9 percent), while the Mavericks were 16-21 (76.2 percent).

Dallas Mavericks at Cleveland Cavaliers Free Pick

Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Cavaliers, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Cavaliers rank 23rd in rebounds per game (42.1) while the Mavericks rank 27th (41.2).
  • Dallas ranks fourth in three pointers attempted per game (32.4) while Cleveland ranks 28th in three pointers allowed per game (31.7).
  • The Mavericks rank first in points off turnovers allowed per game (13.9) while the Cavaliers rank 15th (16.1).
  • Cleveland ranks 12th in fast break points allowed per game (11.3) while Dallas ranks 26th (14.3).
  • Cleveland ranks third in blocks allowed per game (4.1) while Dallas ranks seventh (4.5).
  • The Mavericks rank fourth in points allowed in the paint per game (41.8) while the Cavaliers rank 22nd (46.9).
  • The Mavericks rank fourth in second chance points allowed per game (11.2) while the Cavaliers rank 16th (12.8).
  • Dallas ranks 24th in steals per game (7.1) while Cleveland ranks 25th (7.0).
  • Dallas ranks 14th in assists allowed per game (23.2) while Cleveland ranks 29th (25.7).
  • Cleveland is 15-3 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Dallas is 16-12.
  • The Cavaliers are 45-17 when they reach 100 points, while the Mavericks are 17-26.
  • Dallas is 20-17 ATS on the road, while Cleveland is 11-25-1 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone over in 18 of the Cavaliers 37 home games, while 20 of the Mavericks 37 road games have gone under.

Betting Trends:

  • In their last five games, Dallas and Cleveland have both had 4 unders and 1 over.
  • The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Mavericks are 3-2.
  • During their last five games, the Cavaliers have scored an average of 109.0 points per game (1.7 below their season average) and allowed an average of 102.8 points per game (7.1 below their season average).
  • The Mavericks average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 3.2, up from 2.5 for the season.