Dallas Mavericks at New Orleans Pelicans ATS Prediction

The Dallas Mavericks (22-48), 9-point underdogs, will be at Smoothie King Center to challenge the New Orleans Pelicans (40-30) in a Southwest Division matchup. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 218.5 points and it will air on Fox Sports – New Orleans at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, March 20, 2018.

Dallas Mavericks vs. New Orleans Pelicans ATS Odds

In their last game, the Pelicans dismantled the Boston Celtics, 108-89, while the Mavericks were beaten by the Brooklyn Nets, 114-106.

New Orleans dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had a free throw rate of 0.244 (above their season average of 0.187) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.537 (below their season average of 0.541). For those same stats, Boston was 0.115 and 0.454, respectively. Dallas, meanwhile, had an offensive rebounding percentage of 28.3 (above their season average of 18.0). Anthony Davis had a good outing for New Orleans, finishing with 34 points and 11 rebounds. Yogi Ferrell, meanwhile fueled Dallas with 12 points, 12 assists and five rebounds.

It will be a battle of opposite paces as the up-tempo Pelicans (ranked second in the league in possessions per game) will look to push the slower-paced Mavericks (25th in possessions per game). Ball security should be an advantage for the Mavericks. They rank 3rd at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.2 percent), while the Pelicans force the fifth-fewest turnovers in the NBA (opponents’ turnover percentage of 13.1 percent).

Just over half of the Mavericks’ games have finished under the O/U total. Dallas comes into the contest with records of 22-48 straight up (SU) and 36-34 against the spread (ATS).

Pelicans games have a tendency to finish over the total (60.0 percent). Additionally, New Orleans is 40-30 SU and 38-32 ATS.

The Pelicans lead the season series two games to one. The two teams combined to put up 235 points in their most recent game, which was over the projected point total of 222.5. New Orleans won 126-109, covering as a 3.5-point favorite. New Orleans made 12 of its 26 three pointers (46.2 percent). Dallas, meanwhile, had a better offensive rebounding percentage (19.6 vs. 15.4). Davis recorded a double-double with 23 points and 13 rebounds.

Dallas Mavericks at New Orleans Pelicans ATS Pick

Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Pelicans, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Pelicans rank second in assists per game (26.5) while the Mavericks rank 15th (22.7).
  • New Orleans ranks second in points in the paint per game (51.8) while Dallas ranks last (38.7).
  • The Mavericks rank fourth in second chance points allowed per game (11.1) while the Pelicans rank 27th (13.5).
  • New Orleans ranks fifth in fast break points per game (14.5) while Dallas ranks 27th in fast break points allowed per game (14.1).
  • New Orleans ranks 12th in rebounds per game (43.9) while Dallas ranks 25th in rebounds allowed per game (45.4).
  • The Pelicans rank third in blocks per game (5.9) while the Mavericks rank 29th (3.7).
  • The Mavericks average 32.1 three pointers per game, which ranks fifth in the league. The Pelicans rank 25th in three pointers allowed per game (30.6).
  • Dallas ranks 22nd in steals per game (7.1) while New Orleans ranks 23rd in steals allowed per game (8.2).
  • Dallas ranks first in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.0) while New Orleans ranks 24th (17.6).
  • When holding opponents below 100 points, New Orleans is 9-2 and Dallas is 15-11.
  • When scoring more than 100 points, the Pelicans are 38-19 and the Mavericks are 16-24.
  • Dallas is 19-15 ATS on the road, while New Orleans is 15-19 ATS at home.
  • The Mavericks have 18 unders and 16 overs in 34 road games.
  • In 34 home games, the Pelicans have 24 overs and 10 unders.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, Dallas and New Orleans have both had 3 unders and 2 overs.
  • The Mavericks are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Pelicans are 2-3.
  • The Mavericks have outscored opponents by an average of 1.8 points in their last five games. For the season, Dallas has been defeated by an average of 2.4 points.
  • During their last five games, the Pelicans have scored an average of 104.0 points per game (7.7 below their season average) and allowed an average of 105.0 points per game (6.1 below their season average).