Dallas Mavericks at New Orleans Pelicans ATS Odds

Jose VasquezArticles, Basketball, NBA

Southwest Division foes will collide when the New Orleans Pelicans (18-16) challenge the Dallas Mavericks (11-25) at Smoothie King Center. The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 211 points with New Orleans set as a 6-point favorite. Action gets underway at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, December 29, 2017, and it can be seen on Fox Sports – New Orleans.

Dallas Mavericks vs. New Orleans Pelicans Betting Preview

The Mavericks were victorious over the Indiana Pacers in their last contest, 98-94. Dirk Nowitzki was Dallas leading scorer with 15 points on 7-for-10 shooting. Dallas played a nearly flawless game. They had a great turnover percentage of 9.6 (better than their season average of 12.0) and a free throw rate of 0.128 (matching their season average). For those same stats, Indiana was 16.1 and 0.101, respectively.

In the Pelicans last game, they beat the Brooklyn Nets, 128-113. New Orleans rallied around Anthony Davis, who was the top scorer from either team with 33 points on 11-for-19 shooting. New Orleans dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had a superb turnover percentage of 9.2 (better than their season average of 14.4) and a free throw rate of 0.167 (matching their season average). For those same stats, Brooklyn was 13.5 and 0.133, respectively.

This contest should be a matchup of contrasting styles. New Orleans has preferred to play fast (fifth in possessions per game), while Dallas has been more half-court-oriented (26th in possessions per game). Ball protection should be an advantage for the Mavericks. They rank 2nd at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.9 percent). Conversely, the Pelicans force the eighth-fewest turnovers in the league (opponents turnover percentage of 13.8 percent).

These two teams are complete opposites in terms of the O/U total. Dallas games have gone under 55.6 percent of the time, while games involving New Orleans have gone over 61.8 percent of the time. Looking at straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records, the Pelicans have a sizable advantage. They are 18-16 SU and 20-14 ATS, while the Mavericks are 11-25 SU and 17-19 ATS.

Nowitzki has been playing at a high level over the last five games for Dallas, averaging 14.6 points and 1.2 blocks per game.

These teams have already met once this season. In that game, the two teams combined to put up 193 points, well under the projected point total of 211. The Pelicans won 99-94, covering as 4.5-point favorites. The Pelicans played a perfect game. They had a turnover percentage of 10.7 and a free throw rate of 0.225. The Mavericks had marks of 13.3 and 0.193, respectively, for those same stats. Davis recorded a double-double with 30 points and 13 rebounds.

Dallas Mavericks at New Orleans Pelicans Odds Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Pelicans, ATS Winner – Pelicans, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Mavericks rank third in second chance points allowed per game (10.6) while the Pelicans rank 24th (13.5).
  • New Orleans ranks 12th in blocks per game (4.8) while Dallas ranks 26th (3.8).
  • New Orleans ranks ninth in fast break points per game (12.8) while Dallas ranks last in fast break points allowed per game (14.4).
  • New Orleans ranks 17th in rebounds per game (43.0) while Dallas ranks 25th (40.8).
  • Dallas is 8-9 ATS on the road, while New Orleans is 9-7 ATS at home.
  • The Mavericks have 10 unders and 7 overs in 17 road games.
  • In 16 home games, the Pelicans have 11 overs and 5 unders.
  • New Orleans is 6-0 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Dallas is 10-8.
  • When reaching 100 points, the Mavericks are 6-10 and the Pelicans are 16-11.
  • The Pelicans rank second in assists per game (26.8) while the Mavericks rank 19th (21.9).
  • New Orleans ranks second in points in the paint per game (50.2) while Dallas ranks last (38.3).
  • The Mavericks rank first in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.4) while the Pelicans rank 26th (18.8).
  • The Mavericks rank 14th in steals allowed per game (7.8) while the Pelicans rank 25th (8.9).
  • Dallas averages 31.6 three pointers per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. New Orleans ranks 28th in three pointers allowed per game (31.4).

Bettings Trends:

  • New Orleans is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders in their last five games.
  • Over their last five games, Dallas is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
  • The Pelicans average margin of victory in their last five games has been 5.6, up from 0.2 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 102.8 points per game (2.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 101.0 points per game (1.6 below their season average).