Colorado State Rams vs. Nevada Wolf Pack – College Football ATS Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

The Colorado State Rams and Nevada Wolf Pack are ready to face off on the turf at Clarence Mackay Stadium. The game will get underway at 10:30 p.m. ET and fans can witness the action live on ESPNU.

Betting Preview: Colorado State Rams vs. Nevada Wolf Pack

This Saturday MWC matchup showcases the Rams as a significant underdogs and they’re currently receiving 13 points. The Rams are also receiving +375 moneyline odds while the Wolf Pack are -550. This MWC tilt should provide several decent live betting possibilities, and Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 61.5 points.

The less-than-stellar Rams have lost 10.8 units so far and are 3-6 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 4-5.

The Wolf Pack have gained 0.8 units this season. The team is 5-4 ATS and has an O/U record of 3-4-1.

The Rams have gone 3-6 straight up (SU), including 2-3 SU against conference opponents. The Wolf Pack are 5-4 SU overall and 3-2 SU in conference play.

Colorado State enters this matchup on a two-game winning streak while Nevada has dropped each of its last two. The Rams look to get back in stride after a 34-21 defeat to Wyoming on October 26. The passing game could’ve been sharper as Collin Hill completed 34-of-54 passes for 333 yards and two interceptions. The Rams rushed for just 20 yards as a team in the loss.

The Nevada Wolf Pack are coming off of a 28-24 win over San Diego State. The defensive unit allowed the Aztecs to run for 173 yards on 36 rush attempts. Chase Jasmin was a bright spot in the defeat for San Diego State, posting 85 rushing yards on 16 attempts, along with 14 yards and a score on three catches. For Nevada, Ty Gangi completed 23-of-43 passes for 235 yards and two touchdowns. Toa Taua logged an outstanding statline in the win. Along with 7 rushing yards on 13 attempts, Taua also reeled in five catches for 76 yards and a score.

Colorado State has run the ball on 42.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Nevada has a rush percentage of 45.2 percent. The Rams have run for 103.3 yards/game (including 116.6 per game against Mountain West opponents) and have seven scores on the ground this year. The Wolf Pack are putting up 149.0 rush yards per game (134.6 in conference) and have 17 total rushing TDs.

If 2018 numbers can translate to this game, then it appears the Wolf Pack ought to have the advantage when it comes to effectiveness in the ground game. Their backfield has generated 4.7 yards per carry while their defense has allowed 3.6 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Rams have tallied 3.2 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 5.1 to opponents.

The Rams offense has averaged 310.3 yards through the air overall (345.2 per game versus conference opposition) and has 20 passing scores so far. The Wolf Pack have recorded 267.9 pass yards per outing (251 in the MWC) and have 17 total pass TDs.

Colorado State seems to have an edge when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 207.6 yards and throw for 236.7 yards per game. The Nevada defense has allowed 264.2 yards per game to opposing passers and 143.6 yards per game to opposing runners. The Wolf Pack are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 7.11 to opponents, while the Rams have allowed an ugly 9.31 ANY/A.

Passing-wise, Hill has amassed 486 yards on the year, and has connected on 53 percent of his 88 attempts with one scores through the air and three interceptions. He has a 3.67 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 5.43 over the last two games.

Preston Williams (797 receiving yards, seven receiving touchdowns this season), Marvin Kinsey Jr. (202 rush yards, two rush TDs, 144 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Warren Jackson (227 receiving yards, two TDs) have all played key roles lately.

In the home locker room, Ty Gangi has completed 155-of-268 passes for 1,871 yards, 15 TDs and seven INTs. Gangi’s ANY/A stands at 6.68 for the year and 7.40 over his last two outings.

Toa Taua, Elijah Cooks and Kaleb Fossum have combined to account for 417 total yards and four touchdowns the last two outings.

These two teams faced off last year with the final outcome being a 44-42 win for Colorado State.

Colorado State Rams vs. Nevada Wolf Pack NCAA Tip

SU Winner: Nevada, ATS Winner: Nevada, O/U: Under

Team Betting Trends

  • The Nevada D has sacked opposing quarterbacks 24 times this year. Colorado State has recorded just 14 sacks.
  • The Nevada offense has lost nine fumbles this season while the Colorado State offense has lost six.
  • The Rams offense has produced seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Wolf Pack have put up eight such plays.
  • The Colorado State defense has allowed 12 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Nevada has given up nine such plays.
  • The Colorado State offense has created six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Nevada has created 16 such runs.
  • The Rams defense has allowed 14 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Wolf Pack have given up nine such runs.
  • The Over/Under for Nevada’s last match was 46.5. The over cashed in the team’s 28-24 victory over San Diego State.
  • Over its last three games, Nevada is 3-0 ATS.
  • Over its last three matches, Colorado State is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Colorado State’s last game going into it was 47.5. The over cashed in the team’s 34-21 loss to Wyoming.
  • As a team, Colorado State has rushed for 2.9 yards per attempt across its last three outings and 3.0 over its last two.
  • Nevada has averaged 4.4 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.8 over its past two.