Colorado Avalanche vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Free Prediction

Air Canada Centre will be the site for an East-West matchup as the Toronto Maple Leafs welcome the visiting Colorado Avalanche. It’s the final time that these two clubs will meet in the regular season. The match will get underway at 7 p.m. ET on Monday, January 22, and it can be watched live on TVA Sports.

Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs Odds

With a moneyline of -170, Toronto enters the game as the heavy favorite. The line for Colorado sits at +150, and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at 6 goals (-120 for the under, +100 for the over).

The Maple Leafs are 26-22 straight up (SU) and have recorded -2.8 units for moneyline bettors this year. That winning percentage, the third-best in the Atlantic Division in this young season, isn’t too far off from to the 40-42 record the team posted during the 2016-17 season campaign. Through 48 regular season matches, 23 of the teams games have gone over the total, while 22 have gone under and just three have pushed. The teams 13-9 SU at home this season.

Toronto has been able to convert on 20.7 percent of its power play opportunities this season, a mark that’s good enough for 10th-best in the league. On the other hand, its penalty kill is ranked fifth overall, and it’s successfully killed off 83.8 percent of all penalties.

Toronto, as a collective unit, has been penalized just 3.6 times per game overall this season, and 2.4 per game over its last five games. The teams had to stave off opposition power plays for just 7.2 minutes per game over its last 10 outings, in total.

With a .920 save percentage and 31.3 saves per game, Frederik Andersen (23-17-4) has been the top goalkeeper for the Maple Leafs this season. If head coach Mike Babcock chooses to give him the evening off, however, the team may turn to Curtis McElhinney (3-4-4 record, .916 save percentage, 2.78 goals against average).

The Leafs will continue to rely on offensive production via Auston Matthews and Mitchell Marner. Matthews (35 points) has put up 20 goals and 15 assists and has recorded two or more points 10 times this year. Marner has six goals and 26 assists to his credit and has recorded at least one point in 18 games.

On the other bench, Colorado is 26-19 straight up (SU) and has netted 11.3 units for moneyline bettors this year. A total of 25 of its games have gone over the total, while 19 have gone under and just one has pushed. As the road team so far, Colorado is 8-11 SU.

Colorado has converted on 20.9 percent of its power play chances this season, a figure that’s good enough for 10th-best in the league. On the other hand, its penalty kill unit is ranked fourth overall and it’s successfully killed off 84.6 percent of all opponent power plays.

Colorado’s skaters have been penalized 4.3 times per game this season, 4.4 per game over their last five games total, and 4.6 per game over their last five road outings. The team has been forced to kill penalties just 8.0 minutes per game over their last 10 outings.

Semyon Varlamov (28.5 saves per game) has been the primary option in goal for Colorado. Varlamov owns a 14-12-2 record, while registering a .912 save percentage and 2.87 goals against average this year.

For the visiting Avalanche, the offense will run through Nathan MacKinnon, who has 36 assists and 23 goals on the year.

Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Picks

Predictions: SU Winner – Maple Leafs, O/U – Under

Betting Notes

  • The under has hit in three of Toronto’s last five games.
  • Colorado has managed 27.0 shot attempts per game over its last five road games while Toronto is averaging 35.8 shots per game over its last five home outings.
  • The Avalanche are 13-6 when they serve fewer penalty minutes than their opponent and 15-12 in games where they’re in the penalty box for fewer than 10 total minutes.
  • Two of Toronto’s last ten games have ended in a shootout. The team is 2-0 in those games and 4-1 overall in shootouts this year.
  • Toronto is ranked 10th in the league with 8.3 takeaways per game. That figures trended upward, as it has managed 8.9 takeaways over its last 10 games and 10.0 takeaways over its last five.
  • Colorado has allowed 2.9 goals per game overall this year, but has given up only 1.6 per match up over their nine-game winning streak.
  • Colorado skaters have averaged 4.4 takeaways per game over its last five road games, a drop-off from its season average of 7.2 takeaways per game (ranked 17th in the NHL).