College Football Free Pick – Troy Trojans at Liberty Flames

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

The Troy Trojans and Liberty Flames are ready to collide on the turf at Williams Stadium. This afternoon game will start at 2:00 p.m. ET and interested parties can catch the action live on ESPN 3.

Betting Preview: Troy Trojans vs. Liberty Flames

The surprising Trojans have recorded 5.2 units so far in 2018 and are 4-1-1 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U mark of 5-1.

The Flames have gained 0.5 units this season. The team is 2-3 ATS and has an O/U record of 3-2.

The Trojans are 5-1 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Flames are 2-3 SU.

The Trojans hope to keep things rolling following a 37-20 win over Georgia State last week. the Trojans completed 19-of-25 passes for 217 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Sawyer Smith went 10-for-15 for 81 yards, one touchdown and one interception while Kaleb Barker completed nine-of-10 for 136 yards and two touchdowns. B.J. Smith (140 yards on 17 rush attempts, two TDs) led the running attack while Tray Eafford (five receptions, 69 yards, one TD) and Deondre Douglas (five catches, 27 yards, one TD) manned the receiving duties in the win.

A week ago, New Mexico State took care of this Liberty crew by a score of 49-41. Stephen Calvert completed 31-of-54 passes for 365 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Frankie Hickson (155 yards on 24 rush attempts, one TD) and Peytton Pickett (23 yards on 10 carries, one TD) handled the running game while DJ Stubbs (11 receptions, 115 yards) and Antonio Gandy-Golden (seven catches, 115 yards, one TD) led the receiving corps in the loss.

Troy has run the ball on 56.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Liberty has a rush percentage of 46.8 percent. The Trojans have produced 219.7 rush yards/game and have 13 scores on the ground this year. The Flames are logging 145.0 rush yards per game and have 11 total rushing TDs.

Based on the results so far, it appears that the Trojans should own the edge when it comes to RB efficiency, as their running backs has generated 5.9 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 3.5 to opponents. The Flames have tallied 3.8 yards per carry and allowed 5.8 yards per rush attempt to opponents.

The Trojans offensive scheme has logged 213.5 yards/game in the air overall and has 14 passing TDs so far. The Flames have produced a superb 343.8 pass yards per outing and have 12 total pass scores.

On the defensive side of the ball, Troy has allowed 137.8 rush yards and 239.2 pass yards per game. The Liberty defense has given up 237.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 261.2 yards per game on the ground. The Trojans are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.82 to opponents, while the Flames have given up a 7.20 ANY/A.

Offensively, Barker is up to 870 passing yards this year. He’s connected on 80-of-111 attempts with nine passing scores and only two interceptions. Barker has a 7.21 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 11.96 over the past two outings.

The Trojans have tried to maintain tempo by getting the ball into the hands of their running backs. The tandem of B.J. Smith (370 rush yards, six rush TDs) and Jabir Daughtry-Frye (167 rush yards, one rush TD, 87 receiving yards) have been focal points in the offensive game scripts for Troy.

For the home team, Stephen Calvert has completed 91-of-166 passes for 1,239 yards, nine TDs and three INTs. Calvert’s ANY/A sits at 6.88 for the year and 7.41 across his last two games.

The Flames will also try to control the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. In addition to Antonio Gandy-Golden (252 receiving yards, four receiving TDs), Frankie Hickson (276 rush yards, one rush TD) and B.J. Farrow (zero rush yards, 172 receiving yards, two TDs) have gotten a lot of touches recently.

Troy Trojans at Liberty Flames Bedding Prediction

SU Winner: Troy

Team Betting Trends

  • The Liberty offense has lost four fumbles this season while Troy has let five get away.
  • The Troy defense has 20 sacks on the year while Liberty has just five.
  • Troy has rushed for 7.36893203883495 yards per attempt across its past three outings and 9.1 over its last two.
  • Liberty has averaged 2.9 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.0 over its last two.