College Football Free Pick – Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

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The Chanticleers (-4) are gearing up to welcome the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks to Coastal Carolina. ESPN+ is scheduled to broadcast the action and this conference game gets underway at 6:00 p.m. ET. When these two teams faced each other a year ago, Louisiana-Monroe earned the win 51-43.

Betting Preview: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks

In this Saturday Sun Belt game, Coastal Carolina is projected as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 4 points. The Warhawks are also receiving +165 moneyline odds while the Chanticleers are -185. If one squad can catch a lucky break early, it would probably produce a reasonable live betting opportunity.

The opening line was originally set at -6 but the general public has been hammering the Warhawks.

The Warhawks are 1-5 against the spread (ATS) and are down 1.4 units so far. The team’s posted an Over-Under record of 2-3.

The surprising Chanticleers are up 3.0 units this season. They’re 3-2 ATS and have an O/U record of 3-1.

The Warhawks are 2-4 straight up (SU), including 0-2 SU against SBC opponents. The Chanticleers are 3-2 SU overall and 1-1 SU in conference play.

The Warhawks are trying to get back in stride after a 70-21 loss to Ole Miss last week. Their D allowed the Rebels to pass for 517 yards and five touchdowns while rushing for 309 yards and five scores. DaMarkus Lodge torched the defense in that one with 179 yards and a score on nine catches. On the offensive side of the ball, the Warhawks completed 23-of-38 passes for 297 yards and one touchdown. Caleb Evans went 17-for-28 for 206 yards while Colby Suits completed six-of-10 for 91 yards and one touchdown. Evans (37 yards on 13 rush attempts) also led the ground attack and was complemented by Derrick Gore (52 yards on 10 carries, one TD). Marcus Green (seven receptions, 60 yards) and RJ Turner (five catches, 112 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.

Coastal Carolina just suffered a 45-21 defeat to Troy. The defense let the Trojans rush for 282 yards on 31 attempts, including three rush TDs. Jabir Daughtry-Frye was on a different level for Troy, putting up 140 rushing yards and a score on five attempts. For Coastal Carolina, Bryce Carpenter completed 18-of-22 passes for 172 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Marcus Outlow (71 rushing yards on 19 attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Carpenter (24 yards on 18 carries) led the running game while Malcolm Williams (six receptions, 64 yards) and Jaivon Heiligh (three catches, 23 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.

Louisiana-Monroe has run the ball on 46.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Coastal Carolina has a rush percentage of 72.0 percent. The Warhawks have rushed for 154.2 yards/game (including 162.5 per game versus Sun Belt opponents) and have seven touchdowns on the ground this year. The Chanticleers are averaging 242.2 rushing yards per game (228.0 in conference) and have 13 total rush TDs.

If 2018 numbers are any indication, then it seems like the Warhawks ought to own the edge when it comes to applying pressure. Their offensive line has allowed just 21 sacks while the D-line registered 21 sacks. The Chanticleers O-line has allowed 28 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs just 15 times.

The Warhawks offensive scheme has logged 248.3 yards per contest through the air overall (213.5 per game versus conference opposition) and has eight passing scores so far. The Chanticleers have recorded 175.6 pass yards per contest (179 in the SBC) and have 10 total pass TDs.

Louisiana-Monroe has allowed opponents to run for an average of 194.7 yards and pass for 336.2 yards per game. The Coastal Carolina D has given up 197.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 231.4 yards per game to opposing runners. The Chanticleers are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 7.10 to opposing QBs, while the Warhawks have allowed a whopping 9.84 ANY/A.

Passing-wise, Evans is up to 1,262 yards this year. He’s connected on 111-of-185 attempts with seven passing scores and four interceptions. He has a 5.95 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 3.32 over the past two outings.

Look for Evans to distribute the football early and often in this one. RJ Turner (0 receiving yards and one touchdown), Marcus Green (359 yards, four TDs) and Caleb Evans (0 yards) have all been heavily involved recently.

For the home team, Bryce Carpenter has completed 22-of-29 passes for 218 yards, three TDs and one INT. Carpenter’s ANY/A stands at 4.76 for the season and 5.31 over his past two games.

We’re looking for Chanticleers to maintain the clock by putting the ball into the hands of their running backs. Malcolm Williams (208 receiving yards, two TDs) has stepped up lately, but Marcus Outlow (333 rush yards, four rush TDs) and Torrance Marable (219 rush yards, five rush TDs, one receiving TD) have been significant factors in the Coastal Carolina offense.

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers Free Pick

SU Winner: Coastal Carolina, ATS Winner: Coastal Carolina

Betting Trends

  • The Coastal Carolina offense has lost three fumbles this season while Louisiana-Monroe has lost six.
  • The Louisiana-Monroe defense has 15 sacks on the year while Coastal Carolina has just nine.
  • Louisiana-Monroe has averaged 4.84042553191489 yards per carry over its past three outings and 4.4 over its last two.
  • Coastal Carolina has averaged 5.1 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.1 over its last two.
  • Louisiana-Monroe was favored by 24 points in its last game and the O/U going into it was 76. The over cashed and Louisiana-Monroe failed to cover in the 70-21 loss to Ole Miss.
  • In its last three contests, Louisiana-Monroe is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • Coastal Carolina was favored by 14 points in its last matchup and the O/U going into it was 56. The over cashed and Coastal Carolina failed to cover in that 45-21 defeat to Troy.