College Football Free Betting Prediction: Purdue Boilermakers at Minnesota Golden Gophers

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

The Purdue Boilermakers (-12.5) and Minnesota Golden Gophers are ready to square off on the turf at TCF Bank Stadium. This Big 10 game starts at 3:30 p.m. ET and ESPN2 is scheduled to televise the action.

Betting Preview: Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Purdue Boilermakers

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In this Saturday Big Ten game, Purdue is labeled as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 12.5 points. The Boilermakers are also receiving -525 moneyline odds while the Golden Gophers are +360. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 58 points, and if one school can get out in front early, it will likely lead to a decent in-game betting opportunity.

The game’s total has shifted downward after initially being set at 58.5. The opening line (12.5) has remained consistent.

The Boilermakers are down 3.4 units so far and 5-3-1 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 5-4.

The Golden Gophers have lost 3.5 units this season. The team is 5-4 ATS and the over has hit in six of its games.

The Boilermakers have gone 5-4 straight up (SU), including 4-2 SU against conference opponents. The Golden Gophers are 4-5 SU overall and 1-5 SU in conference play.

When these two schools faced each other last year, Purdue won by a pair of touchdowns 31-17.

The Boilermakers just pulled off a 38-36 win over Iowa last weekTheir defense allowed the Hawkeyes to rush for 118 yards on 37 attempts, including four rush TDs. Noah Fant had a productive day for the Hawkeyes in that one with 85 yards on three catches. On the offense, David Blough completed 23-of-32 passes for 333 yards, four scores and two interceptions. Markell Jones (just 40 yards on 14 rushes, one TD) led the ground attack while Rondale Moore (six receptions, 31 yards) and Terry Wright (six catches, 146 yards, three TDs) handled the receiving duties in the win.

Minnesota just suffered a 55-31 loss to Illinois. The team’s defensive unit let the Fighting Illini kill the clock by running for 430 yards on 35 rush attempts, including five rush TDs. Reggie Corbin was a force to be reckoned with, recording 213 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 13 attempts for Illinois. For Minnesota, Tanner Morgan completed 14-of-27 passes for 258 yards and two touchdowns. Mohamed Ibrahim (98 rushing yards on 18 attempts, two TDs) and the signal-caller Morgan (five yards on 10 carries) led the running game as Rashod Bateman (seven receptions, 175 yards, two TDs) and Tyler Johnson (five catches, 68 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.

Purdue’s run the ball on 43.8 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 41.8 percent across possessions in conference play. Minnesota has a run percentage of 57.5 percent, and has rushed the ball 55.4 percent of the time when facing Big 10 opponents. The Boilermakers have produced 155.6 rush yards/game (including 156.8 per game versus Big Ten opponents) and have 16 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Gophers are averaging 154.0 rushing yards per game (140.2 in conference) and have 15 total rush TDs.

It appears that the Boilermakers could hold an advantage in terms of effectiveness in the ground game, as their running backs has logged 5.0 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 3.6 to opponents. The Golden Gophers have recorded 3.9 yards per carry and allowed 5.8 yards per rush attempt to opponents.

The Boilermakers offense has averaged 330.3 yards through the air overall (328.3 per game against conference opposition) and has 20 passing TDs so far. The Gophers have recorded 234.6 pass yards per game (255 in the Big 10) and have 15 total pass scores.

Purdue has allowed opponents to run for an average of 131.4 yards and pass for 296.4 yards per game. The Minnesota D has allowed 235.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 188.3 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Boilermakers have given up an ANY/A of 6.15 to opposing QBs, while the Gophers are yielding an ANY/A of 6.24.

Offensively, Blough has amassed 2,406 passing yards this year. He’s connected on 67 percent of his 262 attempts with 17 passing scores and only four interceptions. Blough has a 9.03 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 5.55 over the last two outings.

We expect the Purdue offense to mix it up in this one. Terry Wright (316 receiving yards, five receiving touchdowns this season), D.J. Knox (702 rush yards, eight rush TDs, 91 receiving yards) and Brycen Hopkins (446 receiving yards, two TDs) have each played significant roles lately.

On the other sideline, Tanner Morgan has connected on 27-of-49 passes for 507 yards, two TDs and two INTs. Morgan’s ANY/A sits at 8.48 for the year and 10.75 over his past two games.

Rashod Bateman (470 receiving yards, five receiving touchdowns on the year), Tyler Johnson (773 receiving yards, six receiving TDs) and Shannon Brooks (154 rush yards, one rush TD) have combined for 618 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns over the past two games.

Purdue Boilermakers vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers NCAA Pick

SU Winner: Purdue, ATS Winner: Purdue, O/U: Under

Team Betting Trends

  • The Over/Under for Purdue’s last game was set at 52. The over cashed in the team’s 38-36 victory over Iowa.
  • Purdue has produced 4.4 yards per carry across its last three games and 3.7 over its last two.
  • Minnesota has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.4 over its last two.
  • The Minnesota offense has lost 10 fumbles this season while Purdue has let four get away.
  • Over its last three matchups, Purdue is 1-1-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • Purdue has won six of its last seven games SU, with a 10-point defeat to Michigan State on October 27th representing the only loss over that span.
  • The O/U for Minnesota’s last game was set at 62. The over cashed in that 55-31 defeat to Illinois.
  • In its last three matches, Minnesota is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
  • The Boilermakers offense has created 15 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Golden Gophers have accounted for seven such plays.
  • The Purdue defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Minnesota has given up eight such plays.
  • The Purdue offense has created 15 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Minnesota has created seven such runs.
  • The Boilermakers defense has allowed seven rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Golden Gophers have given up 22 such runs.
  • The Purdue defense has sacked opposing QBs 20 times this season. Minnesota has recorded 15 sacks.