College Football Free Betting Prediction: LSU Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

Two teams that like to run the football, Coach Chad Morris and the Arkansas Razorbacks are getting 12.5 points as they prepare to welcome their in-conference foe No. 9 LSU Tigers to Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. SEC Network will broadcast the action and the matchup is scheduled to start at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: Arkansas Razorbacks vs. LSU Tigers

Arkansas is a live dog in this one and is currently getting 12.5 points. The Tigers are also receiving -525 moneyline odds while the Razorbacks are +360. If one squad catches a lucky break in the early stages it will produce a nice in-game betting scenario. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 47.5 points.

The early action has slanted toward the Razorbacks, as the opening line was 14. The game’s over/under has not moved after it was set initially at 47.5.

The surprising Tigers are 5-4 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 7.4 units so far in 2018. The team has posted an O/U record of 5-4.

The disappointing Razorbacks have lost 11.8 units this season. The team is 5-4 ATS and has an O/U record of 3-5.

The Tigers have gone 7-2 straight up (SU), including 4-2 SU against conference opponents. The Razorbacks are 2-7 SU overall and 0-5 SU in conference play.

The Tigers are reeling from a 29-0 shutout to Alabama last weekTheir defense allowed the Crimson Tide to rush for 281 yards on 37 attempts, including two rush TDs. Damien Harris had a productive day for the Crimson Tide in that one with 107 rushing yards and a score on 19 attempts. On the offensive side, Joe Burrow completed only 18 passes on 35 attempts for 184 yards and one interception. The Tigers managed a total of 12 rushing yards as a team in the loss.

Two weeks ago, Vanderbilt got the victory against this Arkansas team by a score of 45-31. The Razorbacks defensive unit allowed the Commodores to rush for 250 yards on 49 attempts, including four rush TDs. Ke’Shawn Vaughn was on a different level for Vanderbilt, recording 172 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 26 attempts. For Arkansas, Ty Storey completed 23-of-36 passes for 240 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Rakeem Boyd (113 yards on 19 rush attempts, one TD) led the ground game in the defeat while Cheyenne O’Grady (six receptions, 83 yards, one TD) and Chase Hayden (five catches, 17 yards) led the pass-catching corps.

LSU has run the ball on 59.3 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Arkansas has an overall rush percentage of 56.1 percent. The Tigers have produced 170.8 rush yards/game (including 163.2 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have 19 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Razorbacks are logging 176.0 rush yards per game (176.6 in conference) and have 11 total rushing TDs.

If the numbers so far this season are any indication, then it appears the Razorbacks might hold an edge in terms of efficiency in the ground game. Their backfield has logged 4.6 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 4.0 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Tigers have rushed for 4.1 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 4.2 to opponents.

The Tigers offensive scheme has tallied 192.0 yards per game in the air overall (207.7 per game against conference opposition) and has six passing TDs so far. The Razorbacks have recorded 202.4 pass yards per game (197 against SEC foes) and have 15 total pass scores.

On the defensive side of the ball, LSU appears to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 147.2 rush yards and 210.3 pass yards per game. The Arkansas defense has allowed 259.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 153.6 yards per game on the ground. The Tigers are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.80 to opposing QBs, while the Razorbacks have given up a 7.39 ANY/A.

Offensively, Burrow is up to 1,599 passing yards this season, and has connected on 53 percent of his 230 attempts with six scores through the air and three interceptions. He’s got a 5.86 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 2.59 over the past two outings.

The Tigers have tried to maintain the pace by pounding the defense with their running backs. Along with Justin Jefferson (534 yards, two TDs), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (489 rush yards, five rush TDs, 44 receiving yards) and Nick Brossette (645 rush yards, nine rush TDs) have been significant focal points in the offensive scheme for LSU.

Ty Storey has completed 104-of-178 passes for 1,223 yards, nine TDs and seven INTs for Arkansas. His ANY/A stands at 5.49 for the season and 4.79 over his past two games.

The Razorbacks should also look to control the clock by turning to their backfield. Cheyenne O’Grady (249 receiving yards, four TDs) has contributed lately, but Rakeem Boyd (516 rush yards, two rush TDs) and Chase Hayden (209 rush yards, one rush TD) have gotten a lot of looks lately.

When these two teams faced one another a year ago, LSU won handily 33-10.

LSU Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Pick

SU Winner: Arkansas, ATS Winner: Arkansas, O/U: Over

Team Betting Trends

  • The Arkansas defense has produced 23 sacks on the year while LSU has 19.
  • Both offenses have lost four fumbles this season.
  • The Tigers offense has registered five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Razorbacks have accounted for six such plays.
  • The LSU defense has allowed three pass plays of 40+ yards, while Arkansas has given up 11 such plays.
  • The LSU offense has created nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Arkansas has created 12 such runs.
  • Both teams have allowed nine rushing plays of 20 yards or more. The Tigers have given up 45 running plays of 10+ yards while the Razorbacks have given up 52 such plays.
  • The O/U for Arkansas’ last matchup was set at 51.5. The over cashed in that 45-31 defeat to Vanderbilt.
  • Over its last three matchups, Arkansas is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • In its last three matchups, LSU is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for LSU’s last game was set at 51.5. The under cashed in the team’s 29-0 defeat to Alabama.
  • As a team, LSU has produced 3.3 yards per carry over its past three outings and 1.8 over its last two.
  • Arkansas has averaged 5.4 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.9 over its past two.