College Football Free Betting Prediction – Kentucky Wildcats at Tennessee Volunteers

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Two schools that like to run the football, Head Coach Mark Stoops and the No. 12 Kentucky Wildcats (-4) are set to pay a visit to their SEC foe Tennessee Volunteers at Neyland Stadium. This daytime game is scheduled to kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET and SEC Network has the TV rights.

Betting Preview: Kentucky Wildcats vs. Tennessee Volunteers

Tennessee is a live dog and is currently getting 4 points in this SEC game. The Wildcats are also receiving -185 moneyline odds while the Volunteers are +165. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 42.5 points, and based on how it’s shaping up, this match might offer some in-game betting scenarios.

The opening line was 3.5 while the over/under hasn’t changed after it was set initially at 42.5.

Both of these teams have rewarded gamblers this year as the Wildcats have gained 10.8 units while the Volunteers are ahead 3.0 units.

The Wildcats are 7-2 straight up (SU), including 5-2 SU against conference opponents. The Volunteers are 4-5 SU overall and 1-4 SU in conference play.

The Wildcats hope to get back on track after a 34-17 defeat to Georgia last week. The passing attack was on point as Terry Wilson completed 23 passes on 29 attempts for 226 yards and one touchdown. Benny Snell (73 rushing yards on 20 attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Wilson (12 yards on 12 carries) led the running attack in the loss. Lynn Bowden (six receptions, 52 yards) and Asim Rose (four catches, 59 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties.

The Tennessee Vols just put together a 14-3 win over Charlotte. The team’s let the 49ers tally 152 yards through the air and 92 more on the ground. Benny LeMay had a good showing in the defeat, recording 81 rushing yards on 24 attempts for Charlotte. For Tennessee, Jarrett Guarantano completed 16-of-21 passes for 172 yards and one touchdown. Jeremy Banks (24 rushing yards on 11 attempts) spearheaded the ground game in the win as Josh Palmer (four receptions, 71 yards, one TD) and Marquez Callaway (three catches, 30 yards) led the receiving attack.

Kentucky has run the ball on 64.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Tennessee has a rush percentage of 60.2 percent. The Wildcats have rushed for 199.6 yards per game (including 178.9 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have 18 scores via handoffs this year. The Vols are putting up 127.7 rush yards per game (93.0 in conference) and have 11 total rushing TDs.

It seems like the Wildcats might hold an advantage in all aspects of the ground game, as their backfield has produced 4.8 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 3.8 YPC to opponents. The Volunteers have rushed for 3.4 yards per carry and given up 4.5 YPC to opponents.

The Wildcats offensive scheme has averaged 156.8 yards in the air overall (142.9 per game versus conference opposition) and has nine passing scores so far. The Vols have recorded 205.3 pass yards per contest (223 against SEC foes) and have 12 total pass TDs.

On the defensive side of the ball, Kentucky seems to have the upper hand in both phases. The team has allowed 133.2 rush yards and 178.6 pass yards per game. The Tennessee defense has allowed 207.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 161.1 yards per game to opposing runners. The Wildcats are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.33 to opponents, while the Vols have given up a 6.65 ANY/A.

Offensively, Wilson has put up 947 passing yards this season. He’s completed 101-of-151 attempts with five scores through the air and five interceptions. He’s got a 4.39 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 6.55 over the last two outings.

The Wildcats will probably try to control tempo by putting the ball into the hands of their running backs. In addition to receiver Lynn Bowden (343 receiving yards and three touchdowns), Benny Snell (941 rush yards, 10 rush TDs, 52 receiving yards) and Asim Rose (253 rush yards, four rush TDs, 62 receiving yards, one receiving TD) have brought significant production to the Kentucky offensive scheme.

Jarrett Guarantano has completed 101-of-156 passes for 1,364 yards, seven TDs and two INTs for Tennessee. His ANY/A stands at 7.55 for the season and 6.47 over his last two outings.

The Vols should also look to control the clock by turning to their backfield. In addition to Marquez Callaway (316 receiving yards), Tim Jordan (352 rush yards, two rush TDs) and Josh Palmer (27 rush yards, one rush TD, 385 receiving yards, two TDs) have seen a multitude of looks recently.

These two schools met last year with the final outcome being a 29-26 win for Kentucky.

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Tennessee Volunteers Free Pick

SU Winner: Kentucky, ATS Winner: Kentucky, O/U: Under

Betting Notes

  • The Kentucky defense has sacked opposing QBs 22 times this year. Tennessee has registered just 16 sacks.
  • The Tennessee offense has lost eight fumbles this season while the Kentucky offense has let seven get away.
  • The Wildcats offense has created five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Volunteers have put up seven such plays.
  • The Kentucky defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Tennessee has given up six such plays.
  • The Kentucky offense has created 17 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Tennessee has created seven such runs.
  • The Wildcats defense has allowed 10 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Volunteers have given up 11 such runs.
  • The O/U for Tennessee’s last match was set at 46. The under cashed in the 14-3 victory over Charlotte.
  • In its last three games, Tennessee is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Over its last three matchups, Kentucky is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Kentucky’s previous game was 47.5. The over cashed in the team’s 34-17 loss to Georgia.
  • As a team, Kentucky has averaged 3.7 yards per rush attempt over its last three games and 2.5 over its last two.
  • Tennessee has averaged 2.2 yards per carry over its last three outings and 2.7 over its last two.