It’ll be an ACC-SEC showdown as the No. 6 Florida Gators are heavy favorites against the Virginia Cavaliers in the Capital One Orange Bowl. The matchup will begin at 8:00 p.m. ET and ESPN has the TV rights.
Betting Preview: Virginia Cavaliers vs. Florida Gators
In this early-week game, Florida is projected as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 15 points. The Gators are also receiving -750 moneyline odds while the Cavaliers are +510. This tilt should provide several decent live betting opportunities, and oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 55 points.
Sharp bettors have been siding with both the Gators and the over. The line initially opened at -14 and the O/U was originally set at only 53.5.
Each of these teams has been profitable this season as the Gators have gained 5.2 units and the Cavaliers are up 3.1 units.
The Gators have gone 10-2 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Cavaliers are 9-4 SU.
The Gators are coming off a resounding 40-17 win over Florida State on November 30 where the Gators completed 35-of-48 passes for 390 yards and four touchdowns. Kyle Trask went 30-for-41 for 343 yards and three touchdowns while Emory Jones completed five-of-six for 47 yards and one touchdown. Emory Jones (33 rushing yards on seven attempts) provided the ground attack in the win while Freddie Swain (five receptions, 62 yards, two TDs) and Van Jefferson (five catches, 48 yards, two TDs) handled the receiving duties.
Back on December 7, Clemson took care of this Virginia team by a score of 62-17. The Wahoos defense allowed the Tigers to pass for 408 yards and four touchdowns while rushing for 211 yards and four scores. Tee Higgins torched the defense, putting up 182 yards and three touchdowns on nine catches for Clemson. For Virginia, Bryce Perkins completed 27-of-43 passes for 266 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Perkins (58 rushing yards on 17 attempts) spearheaded the ground game in the defeat while Hasise Dubois (10 receptions, 130 yards, one TD) and Billy Kemp IV (nine catches, 66 yards) led the Virginia pass-catchers.
Looking at offensive play-calling, each of these teams has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Florida’s run the ball on 46.0 percent of its offensive possessions while Virginia has a rush percentage of 46.8. The Gators have rushed for 120.3 yards/game and have 18 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Wahoos are logging 126.5 rushing yards per game and have 28 total rush TDs.
The Gators offensive scheme has averaged 300.4 yards through the air overall and has 32 passing TDs so far. The Wahoos have recorded 262.8 pass yards per outing and have 19 total pass scores.
Defensively, Florida should have the upper hand in both facets. The team has let opponents run for an average of 107 yards and throw for 192 yards per game. The Virginia defense has given up 228.2 yards per game to opposing passers and 130.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Gators are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.86 to opposing QBs, while the Wahoos have given up a 6.3 ANY/A.
Trask probably has the edge over Perkins in this matchup, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 8.07for the year (and 8.70 over the last two games). Perkins’ ANY/A is 5.61 for the year and 6.04 over his last two outings.
Florida Gators vs. Virginia Cavaliers Free NCAA Betting Tip
SU Winner: Virginia, ATS Winner: Virginia, O/U: Under
Team Betting Trends
- Florida, as a team, has rushed for 3.5 yards per attempt over its last three games and 2.6 over its last two.
- Virginia has averaged 5.3 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.5 over its last two.
- Virginia has lost six fumbles this season while Florida has lost eight.
- The Gators offense has registered nine pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Cavaliers have put up eight such plays.
- The Florida defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Virginia has given up 14 such plays.
- The Florida offense has created 10 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Virginia has created 11 such runs.
- The Gators defense has allowed 14 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Cavaliers have given up 15 such runs.
- The Florida D has 46 sacks on the year while Virginia has 45.