College Football Free Betting Pick: UCLA Bruins vs. Arizona State Sun Devils

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

Two schools that like to deploy their running games, Sun Devils (-13) are set to welcome their Pac-12 rival UCLA Bruins to Arizona State. Kickoff for this game is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. ET and you can watch the action live on Pac-12 Networks.

Betting Preview: UCLA Bruins at Arizona State Sun Devils

In this Saturday Pac-12 matchup, Arizona State has been tabbed as the big favorite and the team’s currently giving up 13 points. The Bruins are also receiving +360 moneyline odds while the Sun Devils are -525. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 58.5 points, and if one school gets out in front in the early stages, it would likely produce a decent in-game betting opportunity.

This game’s total has yet to move after it was initially set at 58.5. Having said that, the opening line was -12 and square bettors are hammering the Sun Devils.

The disappointing Bruins are 3-6 against the spread (ATS) and are down 8.2 units so far. The team’s posted an O/U mark of 4-5.

The Sun Devils have gained 1.2 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 6-3 ATS and have an O/U record of 5-4.

The Bruins have gone 2-7 straight up (SU), including 2-4 SU against Pac-12 opponents. The Sun Devils are 5-4 SU overall and are also 3-3 SU in conference play.

UCLA enters this one on a two-game unbeaten streak while Arizona State has lost each of its last two. The Bruins are trying to get back in stride after a 42-21 defeat to Oregon last week. The Bruins defense allowed the Ducks to eat up the clock by rushing for 200 yards on 42 attempts, including three rush TDs. On the offensive side of the ball, the Bruins completed 23-of-49 passes for 297 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Wilton Speight went 13-for-25 for 147 yards and one touchdown while Dorian Thompson-Robinson completed nine-of-23 for 135 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Joshua Kelley (161 yards on 26 rushes, one TD) led the running attack while Kelley (six receptions, 32 yards) and Theo Howard (five catches, 69 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

Arizona State just earned a 38-20 win over Utah. Manny Wilkins completed 19-of-24 passes for 285 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Eno Benjamin (175 yards on 27 rush attempts, two TDs) and Isaiah Floyd (35 yards on 10 carries) mounted the running game as N’Keal Harry (nine receptions, 161 yards, three TDs) and Brandon Aiyuk (six catches, 101 yards) led the receiving corps in the win.

Looking at offensive play-calling, each of these squads sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. UCLA has run the ball on 52.7 percent of its offensive possessions while Arizona State has a rush percentage of 54.2. The Bruins have produced 153.2 rush yards per game (including 164.5 per game against Pac-12 opponents) and have 12 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Sun Devils are putting up 185.4 rush yards per game (220.5 in conference) and have 17 total rushing TDs.

It appears that the Sun Devils should own an edge in terms of RB effectiveness, as their backfield has logged 5.0 yards per carry while the defense has allowed a YPC of 3.9 to opponents. The Bruins have rushed for 4.1 yards per carry while allowing 4.6 YPC to opponents.

The Bruins offense has tallied 209.6 yards per contest through the air overall (219.8 per game versus conference opposition) and has 10 passing TDs so far. The Sun Devils have put up 250.0 pass yards per game (215 in the Pac-12) and have 15 total pass scores.

Defensively, UCLA has let opponents rush for an average of 208.2 yards and pass for 229.6 yards per game. The Arizona State defense has given up 220.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 158.7 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Bruins have given up an ANY/A of 6.52 to opposing QBs, while the Sun Devils are yielding an ANY/A of 6.15.

Passing-wise, Speight has amassed 396 yards on the year. He’s connected on 38-of-64 attempts with three scores through the air and one interception. He has a 5.90 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 3.50 over the last two outings.

Look for a balanced attack offensively from UCLA in this one. Joshua Kelley, Caleb Wilson and Theo Howard have combined for 555 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns over the last two outings.

Manny Wilkins has completed 165-of-255 passes for 2,084 yards, 14 TDs and three INTs for Arizona State. His ANY/A stands at 8.23 for the season and 10.57 over his last two games.

Eno Benjamin, N’Keal Harry and Brandon Aiyuk have collectively accounted for 745 total yards and eight touchdowns the last two outings.

When these two teams faced each other a year ago, UCLA knocked off Arizona State by a touchdown 44-37.

UCLA Bruins vs. Arizona State Sun Devils Free Pick

SU Winner: UCLA, ATS Winner: UCLA, O/U: Under

Team Betting Trends

  • The Over/Under for UCLA’s previous game was 59. The over cashed in the team’s 42-21 defeat to Oregon.
  • UCLA, as a team, has averaged 4.3 yards per carry over its last three games and 5.1 over its last two.
  • Arizona State has averaged 5.3 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.7 over its past two.
  • Arizona State has lost three fumbles this season while UCLA has lost six.
  • Over its last three contests, UCLA is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Arizona State’s last game was set at 55. The over cashed in the team’s 38-20 win over Utah.
  • Over its last three contests, Arizona State is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The Bruins offense has recorded six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Sun Devils have put up nine such plays.
  • The UCLA defense has allowed eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Arizona State has given up three such plays.
  • The UCLA offense has created 12 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Arizona State has created 13 such runs.
  • The Bruins defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Sun Devils have given up 10 such runs.
  • The Arizona State defense has sacked opposing QBs 24 times this season. UCLA has recorded just 13 sacks.