College Football Free Betting Pick: Tennessee Volunteers at Auburn Tigers

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

A couple of teams that like running the football, Head Coach Gus Malzahn and the No. 21 Auburn Tigers (-17) are set to welcome the Tennessee Volunteers at Jordan-Hare Stadium. This SEC showdown kicks off at 12:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to SEC Network. These two SEC foes did not get a chance to face one another last year.

Betting Preview: Tennessee Volunteers at Auburn Tigers

This Saturday SEC game showcases the Volunteers as a noticeable dogs and they’re currently receiving 17 points. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline gamblers would currently need to spend $1,200 to win $100 back on the Tigers (-1200). The Volunteers are getting +710 moneyline odds. If one side gets out in front early, it’ll likely generate a nice live betting opportunity.

This game’s line opened at -18 but sharp bettors are siding with the Volunteers.

The Volunteers are down 2.0 units so far and 2-3 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 2-3.

The Tigers are down 4.5 units this season. The team is 2-4 ATS and has an O/U record of 1-5.

The Volunteers have gone 2-3 straight up (SU), including 0-2 SU against conference opponents. The Tigers are 4-2 SU overall and 1-2 SU in conference play.

The Vols will attempt to get back in stride after a 38-12 loss to Georgia on September 29. Jarrett Guarantano completed 13 passes for just 143 yards and two touchdowns. Jeremy Banks (just 18 yards on six rush attempts) provided the ground attack while Ty Chandler (four receptions, 53 yards, one TD) and Marquez Callaway (two catches, 21 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

Auburn just dropped a 23-9 game to Mississippi State. The defense allowed the Bulldogs to rush for 349 yards on 57 attempts, including two rush TDs. Nick Fitzgerald was outstandingfor the Bulldogs, recording 195 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 28 attempts. For Auburn, Jarrett Stidham completed 19-of-38 passes for 214 yards. JaTarvious Whitlow (88 yards on eight rush attempts) mounted the running attack as Ryan Davis (eight receptions, 91 yards) and Darius Slayton (four catches, 58 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.

Tennessee has run the ball on 66.6 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 63.2 percent across possessions in conference play. Auburn has a rush percentage of 57.9 percent, and has kept it on the ground 51.9 percent of the time against SEC opponents. The Volunteers have run for 177.2 yards/game (including 111.0 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have 10 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Tigers are putting up 163.8 rush yards per game (103.7 in conference) and have 13 total rushing TDs.

The Vols offensive scheme has averaged 182.8 yards in the air overall (175.5 per game versus conference opposition) and has five passing scores so far. The Tigers have recorded 200.3 pass yards per outing (182 against SEC competition) and also have five total pass TDs.

Tennessee has allowed opponents to run for an average of 158.0 yards and pass for 182.6 yards per game. The Auburn D has allowed 188.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 135.5 yards per game on the ground. The Tigers are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.67 to opponents, while the Volunteers have allowed a 6.73 ANY/A.

Offensively, Guarantano has amassed 637 passing yards this year. He’s connected on 52-of-75 attempts with four passing scores and has yet to throw an interception. Guarantano has an 8.29 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 5.69 over the past two games.

As a group, Ty Chandler, Marquez Callaway and Jauan Jennings have collectively accounted for 305 yards from scrimmage over the last two outings.

In the other locker room, Jarrett Stidham has managed to complete 82-of-135 passes for 932 yards, three TDs and two INTs. Stidham’s ANY/A stands at 5.72 for the season and 5.79 over his last two games.

We’re thinking the Tigers will control tempo by feeding their ball-carriers early and often. In addition to Darius Slayton (155 receiving yards, one receiving TD this season), JaTarvious Whitlow (391 rush yards, four rush TDs) and Kam Martin (161 rush yards, one rush TD) have been focal points in the Auburn offense.

Tennessee Volunteers at Auburn Tigers Free Pick

SU Winner: Auburn, ATS Winner: Auburn

Betting Notes

  • The Volunteers offense has produced four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Tigers have put up five such plays.
  • The Tennessee defense has allowed two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Auburn has given up three such plays.
  • The Tennessee offense has created seven rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Auburn has created three such runs.
  • The Volunteers defense has allowed five rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Tigers have given up eight such runs.
  • The Auburn defense has recorded 15 sacks on the year while Tennessee has 10.
  • Tennessee, as a team, has produced 4.3953488372093 yards per carry over its past three games and 2.8 over its last two.
  • Auburn has averaged 3.0 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.3 over its past two.