College Football Free Betting Pick: Iowa State Cyclones at TCU Horned Frogs

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

The Horned Frogs of TCU (-11) are gearing up to welcome their conference rival Iowa State Cyclones to Amon G. Carter Stadium. The matchup will begin at 7:00 p.m. ET and ESPNU will broadcast the action.

Betting Preview: TCU Horned Frogs vs. Iowa State Cyclones

In this Saturday Big 12 matchup, TCU has been projected as the big favorite and the team’s currently giving up 11 points. The Cyclones are also receiving +315 moneyline odds while the Horned Frogs are -425. There will probably be some decent live betting opportunities for the showdown.

The Cyclones are 1-2 against the spread (ATS) and are down 1.0 unit so far in 2018. The team has posted an Over-Under mark of 1-2.

The Horned Frogs have lost 2.4 units this season. The team is 1-2-1 ATS and also has an O/U record of 1-2.

The Cyclones are 1-2 straight up (SU), including 0-1 SU against Big 12 opponents. The Horned Frogs are 2-2 SU overall and are also 0-1 SU in conference play.

The Cyclones are trying to maintain momentum after a solid 26-13 victory over Akron last week. The passing game was on point as Zeb Noland completed 26 passes on 34 attempts for 233 yards and one touchdown. David Montgomery (107 rushing yards on 23 attempts, one TD) led the ground attack while Hakeem Butler (six receptions, 88 yards, one TD) and Deshaunte Jones (six catches, 39 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

A week ago, Texas knocked off this TCU crew by a score of 31-16. As a group, the Horned Frogs collectively completed 20-of-40 passes for 231 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Shawn Robinson went 17-for-29 for 197 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions while Michael Collins was three-of-nine for 34 yards. Sewo Olonilua (55 yards on 12 rush attempts) and the signal-caller Robinson (57 yards on nine carries) handled the running attack as Jalen Reagor (eight receptions, 96 yards, one TD) and KaVontae Turpin (three catches, 68 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.

Iowa State has run the ball on 46.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while TCU has an overall rush percentage of 51.7 percent. The Cyclones have rushed for 79.3 yards/game and have two touchdowns on the ground this year. The Horned Frogs are putting up 204.5 rush yards per game and have eight total rushing TDs.

It seems like the Horned Frogs could own the advantage in all aspects of the ground game. Their running backs has produced 5.4 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 3.3 YPC to opponents. The Cyclones have rushed for 2.7 yards per carry while allowing 3.5 yards per rush attempt to opponents.

The Cyclones offensive scheme has logged 254.0 yards/game in the air overall and has three passing TDs so far. The Horned Frogs have recorded 239.3 pass yards per game and have seven total pass scores.

Iowa State has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 122.3 yards and pass for 222.3 yards per game. The TCU defense has allowed 202.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 127.3 yards per game to opposing runners. The Horned Frogs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.54 to opponents, while the Cyclones have given up a 7.43 ANY/A.

Passing-wise, Noland has amassed 276 yards this year, and has completed 30-of-44 attempts with one passing scores and has yet to throw an interception. Noland’s got a 6.26 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 8.22 over the last two outings.

Hakeem Butler, David Montgomery and Deshaunte Jones have combined to account for 567 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns over the last couple of outings.

On the other sideline, Shawn Robinson has completed 50-of-82 passes for 533 yards, five TDs and three INTs. Robinson’s ANY/A sits at 6.07 for the season and 4.75 across his last two games.

We’re expecting the Horned Frogs to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. In addition to Jalen Reagor (194 receiving yards, two receiving TDs this season), Darius Anderson (120 rush yards) and Sewo Olonilua (157 rush yards) have really been key factors in the TCU offense.

When these two teams met last year, Iowa State knocked off TCU by a touchdown 14-7.

Iowa State Cyclones at TCU Horned Frogs Betting Pick

SU Winner: TCU, ATS Winner: TCU

Team Betting Trends

  • The TCU defense has tallied more than twice as many sacks as Iowa State this year (11 to five).
  • Both teams have lost three fumbles this year.
  • The Cyclones offense has recorded two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Horned Frogs have accounted for five such plays.
  • The Iowa State defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while TCU has given up five such plays.
  • The Iowa State offense has created one rushing play of 20+ yards, while TCU has created three such run.
  • The Cyclones defense has allowed two rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Horned Frogs have given up one such run.
  • TCU was the underdog by 3 points in its previous game and the O/U was set at 50. The under cashed and TCU did not cover in the 31-16 loss to Texas.
  • Over its last three games, TCU is 1-1-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • In its last three contests, Iowa State is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Iowa State was favored by 20 points in its last game and the Over/Under was set at 47.5. The under cashed and Iowa State did not cover in the 26-13 win over Akron.
  • Iowa State has averaged 3.4 yards per carry over its last two matchups.
  • TCU has averaged 5.1 yards per carry over its last two.