College Football Free ATS Pick: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. UTSA Roadrunners

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-14) and UTSA Roadrunners will go toe-to-toe on the dome at the Alamodome. Kickoff for this key game is pegged for 7:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to ESPN+.

Betting Preview: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. UTSA Roadrunners

In this Saturday Conference USA game, Louisiana Tech is tabbed as the big favorite and is currently giving up 14 points. The Bulldogs are also receiving -735 moneyline odds while the Roadrunners are +500. If one squad can catch a lucky break early on, it will likely create a solid in-game betting scenario.

Sharp bettors are siding with the Bulldogs, as the line opened at 12.

The Bulldogs are down 0.5 units so far in 2018 and 3-2 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 3-2.

The Roadrunners have gained 0.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 1-5 ATS and the over has hit in four of their games.

The Bulldogs are 3-2 straight up (SU), including 1-1 SU against CUSA opponents. The Roadrunners are 3-3 SU overall and 2-0 SU in conference play.

The Bulldogs are looking to get back on track after a 28-7 defeat to UAB last week in which J’mar Smith completed only nine passes on 23 attempts for 107 yards and one interception. Kam McKnight (80 rushing yards on 15 attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Smith (40 yards on 14 carries) spearheaded the ground attack. Teddy Veal (six receptions, 66 yards) and Adrian Hardy (two catches, 33 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.

UTSA just got a 20-3 win over Rice. The team’s defense did its duty in the victory, keeping the Owls to only 175 passing yards and 47 yards on the ground. Austin Walter had a productive outing in the loss for Rice, recording 31 rushing yards on 14 attempts, along with 70 yards on eight catches. For UTSA, Cordale Grundy completed six-of-18 passes for 33 yards. B.J. Daniels (61 rushing yards on 13 attempts, one TD) spearheaded the running attack while Kirk Johnson Jr. (three receptions, -7 yards) and Blaze Moorhead (two catches, 27 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.

In terms of offensive play-calling, each of these teams has a remarkably similar (50-50) run-pass ratio on the season. The Bulldogs have rushed for 156.8 yards/game (including 140.0 per game against Conference USA opponents) and have seven scores on the ground this year. The Roadrunners are putting up 102.3 rushing yards per game (113.0 in conference) and have five total rush TDs.

The Bulldogs offense has tallied 260.6 yards per game in the air overall (168.5 per game versus conference opposition) and has 10 passing scores so far. The Roadrunners have put up 148.2 pass yards per game (115 against CUSA competition) and have six total pass TDs.

Louisiana Tech should possess an advantage when it comes to limiting the pass. The team’s allowed opponents to run for an average of 173.0 yards and throw for 186.0 yards per game. The UTSA defense has allowed 244.2 yards per game to opposing passers and 124.7 yards per game on the ground. The Bulldogs are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.48 to opposing QBs, while the Roadrunners have allowed a 7.88 ANY/A.

Offensively, Smith is up to 1,026 passing yards this year. He’s connected on 79-of-139 attempts with seven scores through the air and five interceptions. He’s got a 5.85 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 4.17 over the last two games.

The Bulldogs will likely try to maintain the clock by feeding their running backs early and often. Kam McKnight (117 rush yards, one rush TD) and Israel Tucker (134 rush yards, one rush TD) have been big focal points in the Louisiana Tech offensive scheme.

Cordale Grundy has managed to complete 73-of-142 passes for 612 yards, three TDs and two INTs for UTSA. His ANY/A sits at a horrendous 3.21 for the year and 4.27 across his past two games.

The Roadrunners also prefer to keep their backfield involved. In addition to Greg Campbell Jr. (208 receiving yards, one receiving TD), Cordale Grundy (57 rush yards) and B.J. Daniels (260 rush yards, three rush TDs) have seen a multitude of touches recently.

When these two teams faced one another last year, Louisiana Tech won by two touchdowns 20-6.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at UTSA Roadrunners Free Pick

SU Winner: Louisiana Tech, ATS Winner: Louisiana Tech

Team Betting Trends

  • The UTSA offense has lost five fumbles this season while Louisiana Tech has lost four.
  • The UTSA defense has sacked opposing QBs 17 times this year. Louisiana Tech has produced 14 sacks.
  • Louisiana Tech has averaged 3.70707070707071 yards per carry over its past three games and 3.8 over its last two.
  • UTSA has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.6 over its past two.
  • In its last three matches, UTSA is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Louisiana Tech was favored by 7 points in its last game and the Over/Under going into it was 57. The under cashed and Louisiana Tech did not cover in the 28-7 loss to UAB.
  • Over its last three matches, Louisiana Tech is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • UTSA was favored by 2 points in its last outing and the Over/Under was 49.5. The under cashed and UTSA covered in that 20-3 victory over Rice.