College Football Free ATS Pick – Baylor Bears vs. Texas Longhorns

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

The Baylor Bears and No. 9 Texas Longhorns will square off on the turf of Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium/Jamail Field. The key afternoon game is scheduled to get going at 3:30 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to ESPN.

Betting Preview: Baylor Bears vs. Texas Longhorns

In this Saturday Big 12 game, Texas is tabbed as the big favorite and is currently giving up 16 points. The Bears are also receiving +600 moneyline odds while the Longhorns are -945. There should be some good live betting opportunities for this game.

The sharp action has been siding with the Bears. This game’s opening line was -17.

The Bears are 2-4 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 1.7 units this season. The team’s posted an O/U record of 4-1.

The Longhorns are up 0.4 units for moneyline bettors so far. They’re 3-3 ATS and have an even O/U record of 3-3.

The Bears have gone 4-2 straight up (SU), including 2-1 SU against Big 12 opponents. The Longhorns are 5-1 SU overall and are also 3-0 SU in conference play.

The Bears just got a 37-34 victory over Kansas State last weekTheir defense allowed the Wildcats to run for 319 yards on 35 rush attempts, including four rush TDs. Alex Barnes was unstoppable for the Wildcats in that one with 250 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 22 attempts. On the offense, Charlie Brewer completed 30-of-44 passes for 296 yards, as well as one score and a pick. Trestan Ebner (100 yards on 17 rush attempts) and the signal-caller Brewer (10 yards on 12 carries, one TD) led the running attack in the win. Jalen Hurd (11 receptions, 135 yards) and Denzel Mims (eight catches, 90 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties.

Texas is coming off of a 48-45 win over Oklahoma. The defense let the Sooners pass for 310 yards and four touchdowns while rushing for 222 yards and two scores. Marquise Brown was a bright spot in the defeat for Oklahoma, recording 131 yards and two touchdowns on nine catches. For Texas, Sam Ehlinger completed 24-of-35 passes for 314 yards and two touchdowns. Ehlinger (72 yards on 19 rush attempts, three TDs) and Keaontay Ingram (86 yards on 13 carries) spearheaded the ground game in the win as Lil’Jordan Humphrey (nine receptions, 133 yards, one TD) and Collin Johnson (six catches, 81 yards, one TD) led the Texas pass-catchers.

Baylor has run the ball on 47.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Texas has a rush percentage of 54.0 percent. The Bears have produced 174.0 rush yards per game (including 176.0 per game against Big 12 opponents) and have 13 scores via handoffs this year. The Longhorns are averaging 157.2 rushing yards per game (133.3 in conference) and have 10 total rush TDs.

The Bears offensive scheme has logged 325.5 yards per contest through the air overall (323.0 per game versus conference opposition) and has 12 passing scores so far. The Longhorns have recorded 256.8 pass yards per game (269 in the Big 12) and also have 12 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Baylor has allowed opponents to run for an average of 193.2 yards and pass for 217.8 yards per game. The Texas defense has allowed 233.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 132.8 yards per game to opposing runners. The Longhorns are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.61 to opposing QBs, while the Bears have given up a 6.78 ANY/A.

Offensively, Brewer has amassed 1,158 passing yards on the year, and has completed 64 percent of his 146 attempts with seven passing scores and only two interceptions. Brewer’s got a 7.43 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 5.66 over the past two games.

Jalen Hurd (87 rushing yards, one rush TD, 446 receiving yards, two receiving touchdowns this season), Denzel Mims (335 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) and Trestan Ebner (164 rush yards, 84 receiving yards) have all played significant roles lately.

On the other sideline, Sam Ehlinger has connected on 103-of-166 passes for 1,292 yards, 10 TDs and two INTs. Ehlinger’s ANY/A sits at 7.79 for the season and 7.55 over his last two games.

Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Keaontay Ingram and Collin Johnson have combined to account for 496 total yards and three touchdowns the last two games.

When these two schools met last year, Texas knocked off Baylor handily 38-7.

Baylor Bears vs. Texas Longhorns Free NCAA Betting Tip

SU Winner: Texas, ATS Winner: Texas

Team Betting Notes

  • The Bears offense has created five pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Longhorns have put up three such plays.
  • The Baylor defense has allowed six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Texas has given up seven such plays.
  • The Baylor offense has created eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Texas has created four such runs.
  • The Bears defense has allowed 18 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Longhorns have given up four such runs.
  • The Baylor defense has 13 sacks on the year while Texas has nine.
  • As a team, Baylor has averaged 4.224 yards per carry across its past three games and 3.9 over its last two.
  • Texas has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.3 over its past two.
  • In its last three contests, Texas is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Baylor was favored by 4 points in its last game and the O/U was set at 54.5. The over cashed and Baylor failed to cover in the 37-34 victory over Kansas State.
  • Over its last three games, Baylor is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • Texas was favored by 7 points in its previous match and the Over/Under going into it was 59. The over cashed and Texas did not cover in that 48-45 victory over Oklahoma.