Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins Free Pick

The Cincinnati Reds will head west to take on the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. Fox Sports North will televise this interleague showdown and the game gets underway at 8:10 p.m. ET.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins Odds

Vegas has listed Cincinnati (+100) as the dog to Minnesota (-110). Bettors can wager on the game’s total with odds sitting at -105 for over nine runs and -115 for under nine. The game’s most recent runline odds stand at -210 for taking the Reds +1.5 runs and +175 for the Twins -1.5.

The Reds are only 5-20 SU and have gone 11-13 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 13.3 units for moneyline bettors in the season’s early going and 6.4 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven. The Twins, on the other hand, are 8-12 SU and 11-8 ATS. They’ve lost 2.5 units for bettors taking the moneyline while earning 0.1 units ATS. Minnesota has covered the spread just twice over its last seven games and the over has hit in six of those seven.

Minnesota games have an over/under record of 10-9 so far in 2018. The Reds have an over/under record of 10-14.

Right-hander Luis Castillo is the projected starter for the visiting Reds. Castillo is 1-3 with a 6.51 ERA and 24 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Twins this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Twins will be sending righty Phil Hughes (0-0, 5.40 ERA) to the mound. Hughes has two punchouts and two walks to his credit, as well as a 2.10 WHIP. Hughes did not record a start against the Reds in 2017.

As a unit, Minnesota’s pitchers have allowed 5.2 runs per game overall in 2018. The club’s starters have a 4.30 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 5.76 ERA, 1.59 WHIP and 9.7 K/9.

Minnesota’s hitters are putting up 4.0 runs per contest, including 3.2 per game over its last 10 games and 3.4 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .224/.316/.341 over its last five matchups and is 0-5 SU during that span.

Right fielder Max Kepler and shortstop Eduardo Escobar have led the Twins’ hitters so far. Kepler is slashing .290/.364/.551 with 20 hits, eight RBIs and eight runs scored, and Escobar’s line is .303/.351/.561 with three homers, 11 RBIs and nine runs scored.

Kepler performed well against righties at home last season, slashing .297/.367/.528 across 218 such plate appearances (compared to his overall season line of .243/.312/.425).

In the other dugout, Cincinnati’s pitching staff allowed 5.6 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 5.44 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 7.30 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 5.40, along with a K-per-9 of 8.10.

The Reds offense has slashed .229/.311/.332 on its way to 3.5 runs scored per game this year, including 4.4 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 5.8 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).

Cincinnati’s offense has been led by left fielder Jesse Winker and first baseman Joey Votto. Winker is hitting .323/.449/.387 with 20 hits, seven RBIs and seven runs scored, while Votto (.256/.358/.367) has produced 23 hits, three homers, 13 RBIs and six runs scored.

Putting up a slash line of .358/.414/.679 across 58 such plate appearances, Winker performed well against righties on the road in 2017 (compared to his overall season slash line of .298/.375/.529).

The Reds have lost 12.6 units and are 9-12 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in eight of those games, compared to 13 that’ve gone under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Twins have lost 3.0 units and are 9-6 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in eight of those games, as opposed to seven that’ve cashed the under.

Cincinnati Reds at Minnesota Twins MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Twins, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The Twins have lost eight of their last nine games SU.
  • Cincinnati has recorded 20.6 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 23.8 over its last five.
  • The Reds have hit six home runs in their last 10 games, including six over their last five.