Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The St. Louis Cardinals will play host to the Cincinnati Reds at Busch Stadium. The matchup will begin at 8:15 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Ohio will be televising the game.

Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Odds

Vegas is listing Cincinnati (+165) as the underdog to St. Louis (-175). Gamblers can wager on the game’s total with odds sitting at -110 for over 8.5 runs and -110 for under 8.5. Gamblers can also bet on the game’s runline with the current odds standing at -135 for the Reds +1.5 runs and +115 for the Cardinals -1.5.

The Reds are only 3-15 SU and have gone 7-11 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 11.5 units for bettors taking the moneyline through the early part of the season and 7.6 units ATS. Cincinnati’s covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the under has hit in five of those seven. The Cardinals, on the other hand, are 10-8 SU and 10-7 ATS. They’ve gained 1.6 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 2.0 units ATS. St. Louis has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the under has cashed in four of those seven.

Cardinals games have an 8-9 over/under record so far in 2018. The Reds have an over/under record of 7-11.

The left-handed Brandon Finnegan is the probable starter for the visiting Reds. Finnegan is 0-1 with a 10.38 ERA and four strikeouts. He’s 0-1 with four strikeouts and a 10.38 ERA against St. Louis this year.

The Cardinals will turn to righty Michael Wacha (2-1, 5.52 ERA), who has 12 strikeouts and 10 walks as well as a 1.64 WHIP. Wacha is 1-0 with five strikeouts and a 5.40 ERA across one starts against Cincinnati this year.

St. Louis’ pitching staff has allowed 3.7 runs per game overall this season as a unit. The club’s starting pitching staff has an ERA of 3.55, a WHIP of 1.31 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.6. The bullpen has a 3.43 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 9.4 K/9. In 12 games against divisional foes, Cardinals starters have an ERA of 3.11 and the bullpen’s ERA is 3.38.

The St. Louis hitters have produced 4.7 runs per contest, including 5.5 per game against divisional foes and 4.8 per game over their last five. The team has hit .229/.333/.380 over its last five matchups and is 4-1 SU during that span.

The Cardinals’ hitters have been led by first baseman Jose Martinez and right fielder Tommy Pham. Martinez is hitting .339/.432/.548 with three home runs, 15 RBIs and six runs scored, and Pham is batting .317 with 20 hits, five RBIs, 16 runs and five stolen bases.

Martinez enjoyed hitting against lefties last season, slashing .407/.493/.847 across 69 plate appearances (his overall season line was .309/.379/.518).

For the visiting squad, Cincinnati’s pitching staff allowed 5.6 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 5.59 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 7.20 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.17, along with a K-per-9 of 8.47.

Reds hitters have slashed .220/.300/.319 on their way to 3.0 runs scored per game this year, including 2.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 2.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (1-4 SU).

Catcher Tucker Barnhart and outfielder Jesse Winker have led Cincinnati’s offense. Barnhart is slashing .277/.393/.489 with 13 hits, four RBIs and five runs scored, while Winker is slashing .238/.407/.262 with 10 hits, four RBIs and three runs scored.

Winker enjoyed hitting against righties on the road in 2017, putting up a slash line of .358/.414/.679 across 58 such plate appearances (his total season line was .298/.375/.529).

The Reds have lost 10.7 units and are 5-10 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in five of those games, compared to 10 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Cardinals have netted 1.9 units and are 3-1 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in one of those games, compared to three which went under the total.

Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals Free MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Cardinals, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The Reds have hit five home runs in their last 10 games, including three over their last five.
  • St. Louis has recorded 20.9 runs + hits + errors per game over its last 10 outings and 20.0 over its last five.
  • The Reds have lost 10 of their last 11 games SU.