Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers Matchup

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Cincinnati Reds will be facing off against their NL Central nemesis Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Net Wisconsin will televise the matchup.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Odds

Vegas is listing Cincinnati (+145) as the underdog to Milwaukee (-155). The total is sitting at 9 runs and bettors can take the over for +105 and the under for -125. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the most recent odds coming in at Reds +1.5 runs (-150) and Brewers +-1.5 runs (+130).

The Brewers are 9-9 SU and 8-9 ATS. They’ve lost 0.5 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 2.9 units against the spread (ATS). The Reds, on the other hand, are 3-14 SU and have gone 7-9 ATS. In total, the team’s lost 9.5 units for bettors taking the moneyline in the season’s early going and 4.4 units ATS.

Milwaukee games have an over/under record of 8-9 so far in 2018. Reds games have gone under nine times, gone over seven times and pushed on zero occasions.

The right-handed Tyler Mahle is getting the nod for the visiting Reds. Mahle is 1-2 with a 5.63 ERA and 14 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Brewers this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Brewers are sending righty Zach Davies (0-2, 6.75 ERA) to the mound. Davies has 18 punchouts and five walks to his name, as well as a 1.50 WHIP. Davies made four starts against the Reds in 2017, putting together a 1-1 record with a 3.20 ERA and 14 strikeouts.

Cincinnati’s pitchers have allowed 5.8 runs per game and its starters own a 5.70 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 7.00 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.43, along with a WHIP of 1.37 and a K/9 of 8.60.

Reds hitters have slashed .226/.306/.330 on their way to 3.2 runs scored per game this year, including 3.0 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.2 per game over the team’s last five outings (1-4 SU).

Cincinnati’s offense has been powered by catcher Tucker Barnhart and left fielder Jesse Winker. Barnhart is slashing .302/.423/.535 with 13 hits, four RBIs and five runs scored, while Winker has a .237 average with nine hits, four RBIs and three runs scored.

Winker thrived hitting against right-handed pitchers on the road in 2017. Over 58 such plate appearances, he put up a slash line of .358/.414/.679 (his total season line was .298/.375/.529).

In the home-team dugout, Milwaukee’s pitchers have given up 4.4 runs per game overall this season. Its starters have a 4.35 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 10.6 K/9. In 12 games against divisional opponents, Brewers starters have an ERA of 4.35 and the bullpen’s ERA is 3.94.

The Milwaukee hitters have produced 3.4 runs per contest, including 2.8 per game against divisional foes and 3.6 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .229/.293/.380 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

Eric Thames and Jesus Aguilar have led the charge for the Brewers’ batters this year. Thames is hitting .224/.309/.633 with 11 hits, six home runs, nine RBIs and nine runs scored, and Aguilar’s line is .375/.464/.458 with nine hits, zero RBIs and five runs.

Aguilar didn’t seem to enjoy hitting against righty pitching at home in 2017. Across 90 such plate appearances, he slashed .171/.244/.366 (compared to his overall season line of .265/.331/.505).

The Reds have lost 8.7 units and are 5-8 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in five of those games, compared to eight that’ve gone under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Brewers have netted 0.6 units and are 6-6 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in six of those games, compared to six which went under the total.

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers Free Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Brewers, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The over has cashed in only two of Cincinnati’s last seven games.
  • Cincinnati has recorded 16.7 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 17.6 over its last five.
  • The Reds have hit five home runs in their last 10 games, including four over their last five.