Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Cincinnati Reds will be taking on their division rival St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. Fox Sports Midwest will be airing the matchup. The first pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET.

Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals Odds

Vegas is listing St. Louis (-140) as the favorite over Cincinnati (+130). Bettors can wager on the games total with odds sitting at even money (+100) for over 9 runs and -120 for under 9. Bettors can also wager on the games spread with the runline odds coming in at Reds +1.5 runs (-170) and Cardinals -1.5 runs (+150).

The Cardinals are 47-45 straight up (SU) and 45-46 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 7.3 units for moneyline bettors and 4.7 units (ATS). St. Louis has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven. The Reds have gone 42-52 SU this year and are 56-37 ATS. In total, the teams lost 2.8 units for bettors taking the moneyline, but have gained 8.8 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread six times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in six of those seven.

Cardinals games have had an over/under record of 39-48-4 so far in 2018. Cincinnati has been a decent over bet with a total record of 48-41-4.

Right-hander Luis Castillo is the probable starter for Cincinnati. Castillo is 5-8 with a 5.58 ERA and 94 strikeouts. He’s 0-2 with 13 strikeouts and a 6.55 ERA against St. Louis this year (two starts).

The Cardinals are sending righty Jack Flaherty (3-4, 3.47 ERA) to the mound. Flaherty has 82 punchouts and 21 walks to his credit, as well as a WHIP of 1.11. Flaherty hasn’t faced the Reds yet this year, but he made two starts against them in 2017, posting a 0-1 record with a 7.11 ERA.

Cincinnati’s pitching staff allowed 5.2 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 5.09 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 7.37 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.26, along with a K-per-9 of 8.16.

Reds hitters have slashed .259/.342/.407 on their way to 4.8 runs scored per game this year, including 4.3 runs per game against divisional foes and 6.4 per game over the teams last five outings (3-2 SU).

Cincinnati’s offense has been led by second baseman Scooter Gennett and shortstop Jose Peraza. Gennett is slashing .326/.372/.523 with 16 home runs, 60 RBIs and 59 runs scored, while Peraza (.279/.326/.380) is up to five homers, 32 RBIs, 51 runs and 17 stolen bases.

For the home team, St. Louis pitchers have allowed 4.2 runs per game overall this season. Its starters have a 3.47 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.35 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 8.5 K/9. In 42 games against NL Central opponents, Cardinals starters have an ERA of 3.47 and the bullpens ERA is 4.17.

The St. Louis offense has produced 4.4 runs per contest, including 4.5 per game against divisional foes and 5.2 per game over its last five. The teams hit .241/.327/.339 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

The Cardinals hitters have been led by first baseman Jose Martinez and left fielder Marcell Ozuna. Martinez is hitting .298/.365/.479 with 13 home runs, 55 RBIs and 35 runs scored, and Ozuna’s line sits at .270/.312/.390 with 10 homers, 48 RBIs and 37 runs.

The Reds have lost 7.0 units and are 40-28 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has cashed in 32 of those games, compared to 33 that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Cardinals have lost 1.8 units and are 34-33 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The overs hit in 26 of those games, as opposed to 37 which went under the total.

Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Cardinals, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The over has cashed in four of St. Louis last seven games.
  • The Reds have won three of their last four games SU while the Cardinals have lost three of their last four.
  • St. Louis has posted 24.5 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 22.0 over its last five.
  • The Reds have hit 13 home runs in their last 10 games, including eight over their last five.