Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Cincinnati Reds will face their divisional rival Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET and the matchup will be shown on either ATPT or FSOH.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Odds

Pittsburgh (-205) is favored over Cincinnati (+187) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this night game at 8.5 runs (-105 for the over and -115 for the under). Gamblers can also bet on the game’s runline with the most recent odds standing at -115 for the Reds +1.5 runs and -105 for the Pirates -1.5 runs.

The Reds are 59-80 SU and are 78-60 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 7.6 units for moneyline gamblers, despite having gained 4.0 units ATS. Cincinnati’s covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven. The Pirates, on the other hand, are 68-71 SU and 66-72 ATS. They’ve lost 4.0 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 13.3 units ATS. Pittsburgh has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven outings and the under has hit in six of those seven.

Pittsburgh games have a 61-68-9 over/under record in 2018. The Reds have been a decent over bet with a total record of 71-63-4.

The right-handed Homer Bailey is getting the nod for the visiting Reds. Bailey (1-13, 6.13 ERA) has racked up 71 strikeouts in 101.1 innings so far. He’s 0-1 with five strikeouts and a 7.45 ERA against Pittsburgh this year (two starts).

The Pirates will be sending righty Jameson Taillon (11-9, 3.45 ERA) to the hill. Taillon has 146 punchouts and 40 walks to his credit, as well as a 1.20 WHIP. Taillon is 2-1 with 21 strikeouts and a 3.10 ERA over three starts against Cincinnati this year.

As a unit, Pittsburgh’s pitchers have allowed 4.3 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starters have an ERA of 4.05, a WHIP of 1.27 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.3. The bullpen has a 4.01 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 9.6 K/9. In 59 divisional games, Pirates starters have an ERA of 3.42 and the bullpen’s ERA is 3.26.

The Pittsburgh hitters have put up 4.3 runs per contest, including 4.5 per game against divisional foes and 3.8 per game over their last five. The team has hit .235/.262/.346 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that span.

The Pirates’ batters have been led by outfielders Starling Marte and Corey Dickerson. Marte is hitting .278/.323/.458 with 18 home runs, 63 RBIs, 70 runs and 30 stolen bases, while Dickerson’s line is .291/.320/.453 with 11 homers, 46 RBIs and 54 runs scored.

In the other dugout, Cincinnati’s pitchers have allowed 5.2 runs per game and its starters own a 5.20 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 7.58 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.22, along with a K-per-9 of 8.00.

Reds hitters have slashed .258/.335/.406 on their way to 4.5 runs scored per game this year, including 4.1 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.8 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).

Second baseman Scooter Gennett and shortstop Jose Peraza continue to lead Cincinnati’s offense. Gennett is hitting .322/.369/.515 with 22 home runs, 84 RBIs and 82 runs scored. Peraza is slashing .283/.323/.397 with nine homers, 45 RBIs, 73 runs and 20 steals.

The Reds have lost 11.6 units and are 55-46 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 50 of those games, compared to 48 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Pirates have netted 3.8 units and are 49-50 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s cashed in 38 of those games, compared to 53 that’ve gone under.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Pirates, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • Cincinnati has logged 15 extra-base hits over its last five contests. Pittsburgh has 10 XBH over its last five.
  • Cincinnati fielders have committed two errors over their last five games, compared to five errors for Pittsburgh over its last five.
  • The Reds have hit 14 home runs in their last 10 games. The Pirates have hit seven over their last 10.