Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Cincinnati Reds are making a road trip to Flushing to square off against the Mets at Citi Field. SportsNet New York will be airing this NL matchup and the game gets going at 7:10 p.m. ET.

Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets Odds

Both teams have equal moneyline odds (-105) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this night game at 8.5 runs (+100 for the under and -120 for the over). Runline odds sit at +140 for picking the Reds -1.5 runs and -160 for the Mets +1.5 runs.

The Reds are 48-63 SU and are 65-47 against the spread (ATS). The team hasn’t moved the needle much this year, losing 4.5 units for moneyline bettors, despite having gained 6.7 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven. The Mets, on the other hand, are 45-64 SU and 49-59 ATS. The team has lost 21.8 units for moneyline bettors and 16.6 units ATS. New York has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the under has cashed in five of those seven.

Mets games have an over/under record of 46-57-5 in 2018. Cincinnati has been a decent over bet with a total record of 58-50-4.

Right-hander Sal Romano is getting the nod for the visiting Reds. Romano is 6-9 with a 5.12 ERA and 82 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with seven strikeouts and a 1.50 ERA against New York this year.

The Mets are handing the ball to lefty Jason Vargas (2-7, 8.23 ERA), who has 42 strikeouts and 20 walks to his name, as well as a WHIP of 1.79. Vargas is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in one start against Cincinnati this year.

As a unit, New York’s pitchers have allowed 4.7 runs per game overall this season. The team’s starters have an ERA of 4.03, a WHIP of 1.26 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.0. The bullpen has a 4.96 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 8.4 K/9.

New York’s offense is putting up 3.9 runs per contest, including 3.4 per game over its last 10 games and 2.6 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .199/.263/.348 over its last five matchups and is 1-4 SU during that span.

The Mets’ hitters have been led by second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera and shortstop Amed Rosario. Cabrera is slashing .277/.329/.488 with 18 home runs, 58 RBIs and 48 runs scored, while Rosario’s line sits at .233/.279/.353 with four homers, 28 RBIs, 42 runs and 10 stolen bases.

In the visiting dugout, Cincinnati’s pitching staff allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starters own a 5.26 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 7.45 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.11, along with a K-per-9 of 7.86.

The Reds offense has slashed .256/.338/.402 on its way to 4.6 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.9 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 2.4 per game over the team’s last five contests (0-5 SU).

Second baseman Scooter Gennett and shortstop Jose Peraza have led Cincinnati’s hitters. Gennett is slashing .310/.360/.495 with 17 home runs, 67 RBIs and 65 runs scored, while Peraza is slashing .280/.325/.385 with six homers, 38 RBIs, 56 runs and 17 stolen bases.

The Reds have gained 2.8 units and are 18-11 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has hit in 17 of those games, compared to 11 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Mets have lost 14.4 units and are 36-44 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 34 of those games, as opposed to 41 which went under the total.

Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets Free Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Mets, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The under has hit in five of New York’s last seven games.
  • Cincinnati has posted 20.3 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 16.8 over its last five.
  • Both teams have hit 11 home runs over their last 10 games.