Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers Free Pick

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The Milwaukee Brewers are trying to avoid dropping their fourth straight game as they play host to the Cincinnati Reds at Miller Park. The opening pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Ohio is in line to showcase the action.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Odds

Milwaukee (-145) is favored over Cincinnati (+135) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this game at 9 runs. Odds for wagering on the game’s total currently sit at -110 for both the over and the under. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the runline odds sitting at -160 for the Reds +1.5 runs and +140 for the Brewers -1.5.

The Brewers are 40-34 straight up (SU) and 36-37 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 2.3 units for moneyline bettors while earning 4.8 units ATS. Milwaukee has covered the spread just twice in its last seven games and the total went over in three of those seven. The Reds have gone 34-38 SU this year and are 39-32 against the spread. Overall, the team’s lost 3.4 units for bettors taking the moneyline, but have gained 2.2 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in six of those seven.

Brewers games have an over/under record of 31-39-3 so far in 2019. Cincinnati has also been a strong under bet with a total record of 24-45-2.

Right-hander Tanner Roark is the projected starter for Cincinnati. Roark (4-6, 3.63 ERA) has racked up 74 strikeouts in 74.1 innings so far. He’s 0-0 with six strikeouts and a 6.23 ERA against Milwaukee this year.

The Brewers are countering with Jimmy Nelson (0-1, 10.29 ERA). Nelson has eight punchouts and six walks, along with a WHIP of 2.14. Nelson hasn’t faced the Reds yet this year and did not appear in the majors last season.

As a unit, Milwaukee’s pitchers have allowed 4.9 runs per game overall in 2019. Its starters have an ERA of 4.85, a WHIP of 1.43 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.7. The bullpen has a 4.26 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 10.1 K/9. In 28 games against divisional opponents, Brewers starters have an ERA of 5.50 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.07.

The Milwaukee offense is putting up 5.0 runs per outing, including 5.5 per game against divisional foes and 4.0 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .227/.308/.393 over its last five games and is 1-4 SU during that span.

The Brewers’ offense has been led by outfielders Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. Yelich is slashing .345/.441/.743 with 27 home runs, 58 RBIs, 58 runs and 16 stolen bases, while Cain is batting .252 with four homers, 27 RBIs, 44 runs and seven stolen bases.

In the other dugout, Cincinnati’s pitching staff allowed 3.7 runs per game and its starters own a 3.59 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 9.56 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.44, along with a K-per-9 of 9.97.

The Reds offense has slashed .234/.306/.407 on its way to 4.3 runs scored per game in 2019, including 4.4 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.8 per game over the team’s last five outings (4-1 SU).

Third baseman Eugenio Suarez and shortstop Jose Iglesias continue to lead Cincinnati’s hitters. Suarez is hitting .250/.329/.470 with 15 home runs, 43 RBIs and 34 runs scored, while Iglesias (.288/.331/.410) has produced four homers, 24 RBIs and 28 runs scored.

The Reds have lost 3.6 units and are 27-26 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 18 of those games, compared to 33 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Brewers have netted 5.0 units and are 25-26 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 25 of those games, as opposed to 24 which went under the total.

Reds vs. Brewers Free Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Brewers, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • Cincinnati has tallied 17 extra-base hits over its last five outings. Milwaukee has 13 XBH over its last five.
  • The Reds have hit 13 home runs in their last 10 games, including eight over their last five.
  • The Reds have an OPS of .713 this season and an OPS of .691 when facing right-handed pitchers. The Brewers’ OPS stands at .783 overall and .782 versus righties.
  • Cincinnati has recorded 19.2 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 21.2 over its last five.
  • The Brewers have dropped five of their last six games SU.