Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Cincinnati Reds will be taking on their divisional rival Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park. Fox Sports Net Wisconsin will be showing the matchup. The game is scheduled to get underway at 7:40 p.m. ET.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Odds

Cincinnati (+175) is the underdog against Milwaukee (-185) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this one at 9 runs. The odds for betting on the game’s total sit at -110 for both the over and the under. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the current runline odds standing at -125 for the Reds +1.5 runs and +105 for the Brewers -1.5 runs.

The Brewers are 86-65 straight up (SU) and 77-73 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 15.1 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 0.3 units (ATS). Milwaukee has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven. The Reds are 64-87 SU and have gone 86-64 ATS. In total, the team’s lost 8.6 units for gamblers taking the moneyline, but have gained 8.6 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the under has cashed in four of those seven.

Brewers games have had an over/under record of 71-75-4 in 2018. The Reds have been a decent over bet with a total record of 76-69-5.

Michael Lorenzen is getting the nod for the visiting Reds. The right-handed Lorenzen is 3-1 with a 3.21 ERA and 49 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with seven strikeouts and a 3.68 ERA against Milwaukee this year.

The Brewers are handing the ball to righty Chase Anderson (9-7, 3.85 ERA), who has 123 strikeouts and 55 walks to his credit, as well as a WHIP of 1.17. Anderson is 3-0 with 15 strikeouts and a 3.63 ERA over three starts against Cincinnati this year.

Milwaukee’s pitching staff has given up 4.1 runs per game overall in 2018 as a unit. Its starters have a 3.91 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.64 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 10.2 K/9. In 68 divisional games, Brewers starters have an ERA of 3.69 and the bullpen’s ERA is 3.99.

The Milwaukee hitters are putting up 4.5 runs per outing, including 3.7 per game against divisional foes and 4.6 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .268/.332/.512 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

Outfielders Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain have led the Brewers’ batters this year. Yelich is slashing .318/.385/.570 with 31 home runs, 93 RBIs, 102 runs and 19 steals, and Cain’s line is .309/.399/.425 with 10 homers, 37 RBIs, 82 runs and 28 steals.

In the visiting dugout, Cincinnati’s pitchers have allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starters own a 5.10 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 7.81 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.22, along with a K/9 of 7.92.

The Reds offense has slashed .258/.334/.407 on its way to 4.5 runs scored per game this year, including 3.9 runs per game against divisional foes and 1.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (1-4 SU).

Second baseman Scooter Gennett and shortstop Jose Peraza continue to lead Cincinnati’s offense. Gennett is hitting .318/.365/.498 with 22 home runs, 88 RBIs and 84 runs scored. Peraza is slashing .291/.330/.416 with 12 homers, 54 RBIs, 82 runs and 23 stolen bases.

The Reds have lost 14.9 units and are 57-49 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 53 of those games, as opposed to 49 that’ve hit the under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Brewers have netted 15.3 units and are 58-52 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has cashed in 48 of those games, compared to 58 that went under the total.

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers Free Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Brewers, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The over has cashed in only two of Milwaukee’s last seven games.
  • Milwaukee has recorded 18.4 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 22.6 over its last five.
  • Each team has hit 13 home runs over its last 10 games.