Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins Free Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Cincinnati Reds will be squaring off against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Fox Sports Ohio is in line to televise this NL matchup and the opening pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET.

Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins Odds

Cincinnati (-115) is favored over Miami (+105) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this game at 8 runs. The odds for betting on the game’s total sit at -120 for the over and +100 for the under. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the most recent odds sitting at Reds -1.5 runs (+130) and Marlins +1.5 runs (-150).

The Reds have gone 66-90 SU this year and are 88-67 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 9.2 units for moneyline gamblers, despite having gained 6.9 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in all seven of them. The Marlins, on the other hand, are 61-93 SU and 79-74 ATS. They’ve lost 3.6 units for moneyline bettors and 11.2 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven.

Marlins games have an over/under record of 76-72-5 in 2018. The Reds have an over/under record of 76-74-5.

Michael Lorenzen will get the start for the visiting Reds. The right-handed Lorenzen is 3-1 with a 3.03 ERA and 52 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Marlins this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Marlins will turn to Trevor Richards (3-9, 4.95 ERA), who has 113 strikeouts and 51 walks as well as a WHIP of 1.45. Richards did not accrue any MLB pitching stats in 2017.

As a unit, Miami’s pitching staff has allowed 5.1 runs per game overall this season. The club’s starters have a 4.38 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 5.37 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 8.0 K/9.

The Miami offense has produced 3.7 runs per contest, including 3.5 per game over its last 10 games and 3.6 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .222/.292/.321 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

Second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson have led the Marlins’ offense this year. Castro is slashing .280/.330/.403 with 12 home runs, 54 RBIs and 75 runs scored, while Anderson’s line is .268/.352/.392 with 10 homers, 60 RBIs and 83 runs.

In the other dugout, Cincinnati’s pitchers have allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 5.03 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 7.85 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.17, along with a K-per-9 of 7.91.

The Reds offense has slashed .255/.331/.403 on its way to 4.4 runs scored per game this season, including 1.3 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 1.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).

Second baseman Scooter Gennett and shortstop Jose Peraza continue to lead Cincinnati’s hitters. Gennett is hitting .316/.364/.497 with 23 home runs, 92 RBIs and 85 runs scored, while Peraza is hitting .290/.329/.418 with 13 homers, 56 RBIs, 84 runs and 23 stolen bases.

The Marlins have gained 2.6 units and are 58-58 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 57 of those games, compared to 54 that’ve gone under against righty starters.

Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Marlins, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The over has cashed in zero of Cincinnati’s last seven contests.
  • The Reds have dropped three of their last four games SU.
  • Cincinnati has recorded 13.3 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 12.8 over its last five.
  • Each team has hit eight home runs over its last 10 games.