Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs Matchup

Jonathan GarosBaseball, MLB

The Chicago Cubs are playing host to their division foe Cincinnati Reds at Wrigley Field. WGN will be airing the action and the game is scheduled to get going at 8:05 p.m. ET.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs Odds

The Reds have gone 63-84 SU this year and are 83-64 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 8.0 units for moneyline gamblers, despite having gained 5.5 units ATS. Cincinnati’s covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven. The Cubs, on the other hand, are 85-61 SU and 73-72 ATS. They’ve gained 0.8 units for moneyline bettors and 1.1 units ATS. Chicago has a 3-4 ATS record over its last seven games and the over has cashed in four of those seven.

Cubs games have a 65-77-3 over/under record in 2018. Cincinnati has been a decent over bet with a total record of 76-66-5.

Matt Harvey will get the start for Cincinnati. The right-handed Harvey is 7-8 with a 4.87 ERA and 114 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 with 16 strikeouts and a 2.65 ERA against Chicago this year (three starts).

The Cubs are handing the ball to lefty Cole Hamels (9-9, 3.71 ERA), who has 162 punchouts and 59 walks to his name, as well as a WHIP of 1.27. Hamels is 1-0 with seven strikeouts and a 1.00 ERA in one start against Cincinnati this year.

As a unit, Chicago’s pitching staff has allowed 4.0 runs per game overall in 2018. The team’s starters have an ERA of 3.93, a WHIP of 1.35 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.7. The bullpen has a 3.35 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 8.6 K/9. In 66 games against divisional foes, Cubs starters have an ERA of 3.43 and the bullpen’s ERA is 3.86.

The Chicago offense is putting up 4.7 runs per contest, including 4.3 per game against divisional foes and 3.0 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .191/.282/.280 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

Second baseman Javier Baez and first baseman Anthony Rizzo have led the Cubs’ offense this year. Baez is hitting .295/.330/.568 with 31 home runs, 103 RBIs, 92 runs and 21 stolen bases, and Rizzo is hitting .278 with 24 homers, 92 RBIs and 66 runs scored.

For the visiting squad, Cincinnati’s pitchers have allowed 5.2 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 5.20 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 7.77 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.20, along with a K/9 of 7.95.

The Reds offense has slashed .259/.335/.409 on its way to 4.5 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.1 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.4 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).

Cincinnati’s offense has been powered by second baseman Scooter Gennett and shortstop Jose Peraza. Gennett is hitting .321/.367/.505 with 22 home runs, 88 RBIs and 84 runs scored, while Peraza is hitting .293/.332/.416 with 11 homers, 53 RBIs, 81 runs and 22 stolen bases.

The Reds have gained 7.0 units and are 26-15 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in 23 of those games, compared to 17 that’ve gone under against lefty starters. On the other hand, the Cubs have lost 0.8 units and are 57-57 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s hit in 50 of those games, compared to 61 that went under the total.

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Cubs, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes,

  • The over has cashed in four of Cincinnati’s last seven outings.
  • The Reds have hit 15 home runs in their last 10 games. The Cubs have hit five over their last 10.
  • Cincinnati has recorded 21.9 runs + hits + errors per game over its last 10 games and 23.8 over its last five.