Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Arizona Diamondbacks will play host to the Cincinnati Reds at Chase Field. Fox Sports Arizona will televise this NL showdown and the action gets underway at 4:10 p.m. ET.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Odds

Oddsmakers are listing Arizona (-150) as the favorite over Cincinnati (+140). The total sits at nine runs and bettors can wager on the over for +100 and the under for -120. Runline odds stand at -155 for taking the Reds +1.5 runs and +135 for the Diamondbacks -1.5 runs.

The Reds are 19-35 SU and are 29-24 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 10.7 units for moneyline gamblers and 1.6 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven. The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, are 26-26 SU and 23-28 ATS. The teams gained 2.4 units for bettors taking the moneyline while earning 6.7 units ATS. Arizona has covered the spread just twice over its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.

Diamondbacks games have an over/under record of 22-27-2 so far in 2018. Reds games have gone under 29 times, gone over 22 times and pushed on two occasions.

The right-handed Homer Bailey is the probable starter for Cincinnati. Bailey is 1-6 with a 6.21 ERA and 35 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Diamondbacks this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (1-0, 1.35 ERA and five strikeouts over 6.2 innings).

The Diamondbacks are sending righty Matt Koch (2-3, 3.77 ERA) to the hill. Koch has 25 strikeouts and 12 walks to his name, as well as a WHIP of 1.14. Koch did not record any MLB pitching stats in 2017.

As a unit, Arizona’s pitching staff has given up 3.5 runs per game overall this season. Its starters have an ERA of 3.79, a WHIP of 1.22 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.3. The bullpen has a solid ERA of just 2.56, a WHIP of 1.07 and a K/9 of 8.1.

The Arizona offense has produced 3.6 runs per outing, including 2.0 per game over its last 10 games and 2.0 per game over its last five. The team has hit .157/.237/.268 over its last five games and is 1-4 SU during that span.

The Diamondbacks hitters have been led by outfielders David Peralta and A.J. Pollock. Peralta is hitting .262/.333/.426 with seven home runs, 21 RBIs and 22 runs scored, while Pollock is batting .293 with 11 homers, 33 RBIs, 23 runs and nine steals.

In the visiting dugout, Cincinnati’s pitchers have allowed 5.2 runs per game and its starters own a 5.59 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 7.25 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.02, along with a K-per-9 of 8.63.

Reds hitters have slashed .241/.321/.377 on their way to 4.1 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.5 runs per game over the teams last 10 games and 4.2 per game over the teams last five contests (2-3 SU).

Second baseman Scooter Gennett and first baseman Joey Votto continue to lead Cincinnati’s offense. Gennett is slashing .340/.376/.558 with 10 home runs, 37 RBIs and 27 runs scored, while Votto (.285/.407/.430) is up to six homers, 24 RBIs and 26 runs scored.

The Reds have lost 8.8 units and are 21-17 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has cashed in 15 of those games, as opposed to 22 that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks have lost 5.1 units and are 12-19 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 12 of those games, compared to 19 that’ve gone under.

Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Diamondbacks, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The Reds have hit eight home runs in their last 10 games, including six over their last five.
  • Arizona has recorded 12.2 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 11.6 over its last five.
  • The Diamondbacks have lost nine of their last 10 games SU.