Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Chicago Cubs are making a road trip to Milwaukee to play their NL Central foe Brewers at Miller Park. WGN is in line to televise the matchup and the game gets going at 2:10 p.m. ET.

Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Odds

Chicago (-135) is favored over Milwaukee (+125) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this afternoon game at 8.5 runs. The odds for betting on the game’s total stand at +105 for the under and -125 for the over. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the runline odds standing at +110 for the Cubs -1.5 runs and -130 for the Brewers +1.5 runs.

The Brewers are 77-61 straight up (SU) and 69-68 against the spread (ATS). The team’s gained 10.7 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 3.7 units (ATS). Milwaukee has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven. The Cubs, on the other hand, are 81-55 SU and have gone 69-66 ATS. In total, the team’s gained 4.5 units for moneyline bettors and 2.9 units ATS. Chicago has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.

Milwaukee games have a 66-67-4 over/under record in 2018. Chicago has been a good under bet with a total record of 59-73-3.

The left-handed Cole Hamels is the projected starter for the visiting Cubs. Hamels is 9-9 with a 3.70 ERA and 152 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Brewers this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Brewers are turning to righty Zach Davies (2-5, 5.23 ERA), who has 31 strikeouts and 17 walks to his credit as well as a WHIP of 1.44. Davies is 0-1 with 11 strikeouts and a 2.31 ERA across two starts against Chicago this year.

Chicago’s pitching staff allowed 3.9 runs per game and its starters own a 3.95 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 7.66 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.21, along with a WHIP of 1.36 and a K-per-9 of 8.67.

Cubs hitters have slashed .263/.342/.423 on their way to 4.8 runs scored per game this season, including 4.5 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.8 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

Chicago’s offensive production has been sparked by second baseman Javier Baez and first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who have combined to belt 53 home runs. Baez is slashing .299/.331/.581 with 30 home runs, 100 RBIs, 85 runs and 21 stolen bases, while Rizzo has a .280 average with 23 homers, 88 RBIs and 63 runs scored.

For the home team, Milwaukee’s pitching staff has allowed 4.3 runs per game overall this year. The team’s starters have a 4.03 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.83 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 10.0 K/9. In 58 games against NL Central opponents, Brewers starters have an ERA of 3.84 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.45.

The Milwaukee offense has produced 4.5 runs per outing, including 3.5 per game against divisional foes and 6.4 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .283/.360/.524 over its last five contests and is 4-1 SU during that span.

The Brewers’ hitters have been led by outfielders Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. Yelich is slashing .316/.381/.559 with 27 home runs, 81 RBIs, 96 runs and 16 stolen bases, while Cain’s line sits at .307/.397/.433 with 10 homers, 34 RBIs, 72 runs and 24 stolen bases.

The Cubs have gained 0.3 units and are 53-53 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in 45 of those games, compared to 58 that’ve gone under against righties. On the other hand, the Brewers have lost 3.5 units and are 14-19 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 20 of those games, as opposed to 13 which went under the total.

Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Free MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Cubs, ATS Winner – Cubs, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • Chicago has logged 19 extra-base hits over its last five contests. Milwaukee has 21 XBH over its last five.
  • The Brewers have won four of their last five games SU.
  • Milwaukee has posted 27 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 28 over its last five.
  • The Cubs have hit 15 home runs in their last 10 games. The Brewers have hit 21 over their last 10.