Chicago Cubs vs. Kansas City Royals Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Chicago Cubs will head south to face off against the Kansas City Royals at Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium. NBC Sports Chicago will be televising this interleague matchup and the first pitch will be at 8:15 p.m. ET.

Chicago Cubs at Kansas City Royals Odds

Oddsmakers are listing Kansas City (+165) as the underdog to Chicago (-175). The total is sitting at 9.5 runs and bettors can take the over or the under for -110. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the current odds coming in at Cubs -1.5 runs (-120) and Royals +1.5 runs (+100).

The Cubs have gone 64-47 SU this year and are 56-55 against the spread (ATS). The team hasn’t moved the needle very much this year, losing 0.2 units for moneyline gamblers, despite having gained 1.1 units ATS. Chicago is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone under in three of those seven. The Royals, on the other hand, are 34-77 SU and 51-60 ATS. The team has lost 28.8 units for moneyline bettors and 18.5 units ATS. Kansas City has a 3-4 ATS record over its last seven games and the over has cashed in five of those seven.

Royals games have an over/under record of 48-57-6 in 2018. The Cubs have an over/under record of 52-57-2.

Mike Montgomery is getting the nod for the visiting Cubs. The southpaw Montgomery is 3-4 with a 3.90 ERA and 56 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Royals this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Royals are putting the ball in the right hand of Brad Keller (4-4, 3.39 ERA), who has 54 strikeouts and 35 walks as well as a 1.36 WHIP. Keller did not pitch in the majors last season.

Chicago’s pitchers have allowed 4.1 runs per game and its starters own a 4.14 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 7.62 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.35, along with a K-per-9 of 8.79.

The Cubs offense has slashed .267/.348/.426 on its way to 5.0 runs scored per game this season, including 4.6 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 5.2 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

Second baseman Javier Baez and first baseman Anthony Rizzo continue to lead Chicago’s offense. Baez is slashing .300/.333/.585 with 24 home runs, 86 RBIs, 70 runs and 19 stolen bases. Rizzo is hitting .266 with 17 homers, 74 RBIs and 47 runs scored.

For the home team, Kansas City’s pitching staff has allowed 5.5 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starters have a 5.35 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 7.4 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 5.38 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and 7.1 K/9.

The Kansas City hitters have put up 3.7 runs per outing, including 4.8 per game over its last 10 games and 5.0 per game over their last five. The team has hit .256/.307/.386 over its last five matchups and is 1-4 SU during that span.

Second baseman Whit Merrifield and third baseman Mike Moustakas have led the Royals’ batters this year. Merrifield is hitting .307/.375/.436 with seven home runs, 37 RBIs, 54 runs and 25 steals, and Moustakas has put up a line of .249/.309/.468 with 20 homers, 62 RBIs and 46 runs.

The Cubs have lost 5.2 units and are 41-43 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in 40 of those games, compared to 42 that’ve hit the under against righties. On the other hand, the Royals have lost 2.4 units and are 20-15 ATS when facing a lefty starter. The over’s hit in 13 of those games, compared to 21 that went under.

Chicago Cubs vs. Kansas City Royals Free Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Cubs, ATS Winner – Cubs, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • Chicago has recorded 18 extra-base hits over its last five outings. Kansas City has 13 XBH over its last five.
  • The Chicago defense has allowed six errors over its last five games, compared to zero errors for Kansas City over its last five.
  • The Cubs have hit 15 home runs in their last 10 games. The Royals have hit 14 over their last 10.