Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Indians Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Chicago Cubs will head east to square off against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field. SportsTime Ohio is in line to televise this interleague matchup and the game is scheduled to get underway at 6:10 p.m. ET.

Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Indians Odds

Vegas is listing Cleveland (-115) as the favorite over Chicago (+105). Gamblers are able to bet on the game’s total with odds posted at -125 for over 8.5 runs and +105 for under 8.5. The game’s most recent runline odds sit at -200 for taking the Cubs +1.5 runs and +170 for the Indians -1.5.

The Cubs have gone 10-9 SU this year and are 10-9 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 4.5 units for moneyline bettors in the season’s early going, despite having gained 2.2 units ATS. The Indians, on the other hand, are 12-8 SU and 8-11 ATS. The team’s lost 0.8 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 4.0 units ATS.

Cleveland games have had an over/under record of 6-13 so far in 2018. Chicago has an over/under record of 10-9.

Tyler Chatwood will get the nod for the visiting Cubs. The right-handed Chatwood is 0-3 with a 4.60 ERA and 18 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Indians this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Indians are handing the ball to righty Josh Tomlin (0-2, 8.00 ERA), who’s got four strikeouts and four walks to his credit, as well as a WHIP of 2.11. Tomlin did not record a start against the Cubs in 2017.

Chicago’s pitching staff allowed 4.5 runs per game and its starters own a 5.27 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 8.51 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 2.75, along with a K-per-9 of 9.04.

The Cubs offense has slashed .258/.350/.425 on its way to 5.8 runs scored per game this year, including 7.1 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 7.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

Chicago’s offense has been led by second baseman Javier Baez and third baseman Kris Bryant. Baez is slashing .292/.363/.736 with seven home runs, 23 RBIs and 18 runs scored, while Bryant (.319/.467/.536) has produced two homers, 11 RBIs and 12 runs scored.

In the other dugout, Cleveland’s pitchers have given up 2.8 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starting pitching staff has an ERA of 2.58, a WHIP of 0.98 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.7. The bullpen has recorded a solid ERA of just 2.55, a WHIP of 0.96 and a K/9 of 9.3.

The Cleveland offense is putting up 3.5 runs per outing, including 4.1 per game over its last 10 games and 3.0 per game over its last five. The team has hit .232/.284/.381 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

The Indians’ offense has been led by third baseman Jose Ramirez and outfielder Michael Brantley. Ramirez is hitting .237/.348/.526 with seven home runs, 12 RBIs and 10 runs scored, while Brantley’s line sits at .320/.346/.460 with 16 hits, eight RBIs and two runs scored.

Brantley appeared to enjoy facing right-handed pitching at home last season. Across 150 such plate appearances, he slashed .323/.400/.511 (his overall season line was .299/.358/.444).

The Cubs have lost 2.3 units and are 7-6 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in eight of those games, compared to five that’ve gone under against righties. On the other hand, the Indians have lost 3.3 units and are 7-7 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s cashed in five of those games, compared to nine that went under the total.

Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Indians Free Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Indians, ATS Winner – Cubs, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The over has hit in five of Chicago’s last seven games.
  • The Cubs have won three of their last four games SU.
  • Cleveland has posted 23.7 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 21.0 over its last five.
  • The Cubs have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games. The Indians have hit 15 over their last 10.