Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Free Pick

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The Cincinnati Reds are playing host to their NL Central foe Chicago Cubs at Great American Ball Park. NBC Sports Chicago will televise the matchup. The opening pitch will be at 6:40 p.m. ET.

Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Odds

Cincinnati (-120) is favored against Chicago (+110) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this game at 8.5 runs. The odds for betting on the game’s total now stand at -110 for both the over and the under. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the current odds sitting at -190 for the Cubs +1.5 runs and +165 for the Reds -1.5.

The Reds are 25-17 against the spread (ATS)despite being only 19-24 straight up (SU). The team has lost 5.0 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 5.5 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven. The Cubs have gone 25-15 SU this year and are 20-19 ATS. In total, the club has gained 6.7 units for moneyline gamblers through the early part of the season and 2.2 units ATS. Chicago has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in six of those seven.

Cincinnati games have had an over/under record of 14-27-1 so far in 2019. Chicago has an over/under record of 20-18-1.

Jose Quintana will get the nod for the Cubbies. The left-handed Quintana (4-2, 3.50 ERA) has racked up 46 strikeouts in 46.1 innings so far. He has yet to face Cincinnati this year, but he made four starts against the team in 2018, compiling a 2-2 record with a 3.27 ERA and 19 strikeouts.

The Reds are countering with Luis Castillo (4-1, 1.76 ERA). Castillo has 70 punchouts and 24 walks, along with a 0.99 WHIP. Castillo made five starts against the Cubs in 2018, putting together a 2-1 record with a 4.74 ERA and 16 strikeouts.

As a unit, Cincinnati’s pitching staff has given up 3.5 runs per game overall this year. The team’s starters have an ERA of 3.44, a WHIP of 1.20 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.9. The bullpen has a 3.23 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 9.5 K/9. In 16 divisional games, Reds starters have an ERA of 3.95 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.01.

The Cincinnati offense is putting up 4.1 runs per outing, including 3.4 per game against divisional foes and 4.8 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .250/.301/.411 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that span.

Third baseman Eugenio Suarez and shortstop Jose Iglesias have paced the Reds’ offense so far. Suarez is slashing .263/.341/.577 with 13 home runs, 29 RBIs and 24 runs scored, and Iglesias is batting .295 with three homers, 15 RBIs and 16 runs.

In the visiting dugout, Chicago’s pitchers have allowed 4.0 runs per game and its starters own a 3.14 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 8.84 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 3.92, along with a K/9 of 9.68.

The Cubs offense has slashed .255/.348/.448 on its way to 5.3 runs scored per game in 2019, including 5.5 runs per game against divisional foes and 2.8 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

Shortstop Javier Baez and third baseman Kris Bryant have led Chicago’s offense. Baez is hitting .322/.357/.608 with 11 home runs, 29 RBIs and 31 runs scored, while Bryant is slashing .267/.400/.527 with eight homers, 26 RBIs and 32 runs scored.

The Cubs have gained 5.8 units and are 16-14 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in 15 of those games, as opposed to 15 that’ve hit the under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Reds have lost 1.9 units and are 7-1 ATS when facing a lefty starter. The over has hit in three of those games, compared to five that went under the total.

Cubs vs. Reds MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Reds, ATS Winner – Cubs, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • Chicago has recorded 13 extra-base hits over its last five games. Cincinnati has 15 XBH over its last five.
  • The Cubs have hit 14 home runs in their last 10 games. The Reds have hit 15 over their last 10.
  • The Cubs have a team OPS of .796 this season and an OPS of .812 when facing right-handed pitchers. The Reds’ OPS stands at .684 overall and .656 versus righties.
  • Cincinnati has posted 21.0 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 22.8 over its last five.